Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY THEN A DOWN TURN IN TEMPS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS ON PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DRIFTED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
PIEDMONT LATE LAST NIGHT AS RETURNED NORTH INTO VA.  MCS OVER
WV/WESTERN VA SHOULD DRIFT SE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  THUS...SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE FAR N/NE COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA
IN THE 22-02 TIME FRAME.  AS PER LATE MORNING UPDATE...WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) IN THE FAR N-NE AND DWINDLE DOWN TO EITHER
ISOLATED/NO POP IN THE SOUTH.

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST POPS AGAIN (HIGH CHANCE) WILL BE
IN THE FAR NORTH DUE TO PROXIMITY OF WESTERLIES OVER NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL BE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO TRAVEL
FROM OH VALLEY. TAIL END OF COMPLEX CROSSES NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGER OVER SOUTH
HALF...SO WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POPS TO EITHER SLIGHT CHC/SMALL CHC.
CONVECTION MAY BE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE OVER FAR N/NE SAT AS WIND
PROFILE/STRUCTURE SUGGEST DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

WESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING FRONT SUN WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
TRANSPORT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL PROGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A LESS WET MOISTURE AXIS CROSSING CENTRAL NC SUN AFTERNOON.
SUPPORT UPSTAIRS IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. SINCE FRONT
CROSSING REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR
NOW. MAY RAISE HIGHS SUN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
GO WITH BREEZY SW FLOW SUNDAY.

FRONT CLEARS AREA SUN NIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS MON 10-12 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED
TO SUN. THICKNESS PROGGED TO DROP 50-55 M BETWEEN 12Z SUN-12Z MON. WILL
LIKELY TRIM FORECAST HIGHS MON ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

EXTENDED....TUESDAY-FRIDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH WED/THU.  W-NW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF SEASONABLY COOL DRY AIR INTO
CAROLINAS TUE-THU. SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF RETURN FLOW LATE NEXT
WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL FORECAST CLOUDINESS THU/FRI BUT REFRAIN
FROM MENTIONING RAIN.

.RAH...NONE.

WSS

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091050-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
515 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAJOR THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...THE MAJOR THREATS
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 200 PM AND LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNSET.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-092359-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1200 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH DEW
POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARM
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE VIRGINIA BORDER AFTER 200 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP... THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE THOSE NORTH OF THE
WINSTON-SALEM... GREENSBORO... RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT AREAS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
STRONG... AND EVEN SEVERE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PWB

NCZ007>011-026-027-092130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WARREN...GRANVILLE...PERSON...VANCE...AND HALIFAX COUNTIES AROUND
530 PM EDT...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...

AT 440 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS UP OF 60
MPH...HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE VIRGINIA BORDER BETWEEN 530 PM
AND 600 PM. PEOPLE OUTDOORS IN THIS AREA SHOULD PREPARE TO MOVE
INDOORS WHEN THUNDER IS HEARD OR SKIES TURN DARK. BOATERS ON KERR
LAKE AND LAKE GASTON SHOULD PREPARE TO MOVE TO SHORE.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER. BOATERS ON
THE OPEN WATER ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING. GET TO SAFE HARBOR AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING
STORM.