Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

INSTABILITY IS IN NO SHORT SUPPLY AND TSRA WILL BE REACHING THE
WESTERN CWFA AROUND 500 PM. WILL THUSLY ADD LIKELY EVENING POPS TO
THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS INITIAL VORT MAX WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER IMPULSE WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE LESS
THERMODYNAMICALLY TO WORK WITH. WILL END THE CHANCE POPS BEFORE
MORNING. TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COOL AIR ADVECTION EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. WILL HAVE CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF THE AREA...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS SWING
BY. HIGH 70 TO 75 TOMORROW AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGING BUILDS DOWN.

MONDAY ONWARD...
MODELS SEEM NOW TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF THE STATE
ON MONDAY WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BUMPED UPWARD A BIT
AND WINDS ADJUSTED FOR TIME PERIODS BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE CHANCE CATEGORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.RAH...NONE.

MLM/JWC

NCZ007>011-022>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-031025-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
526 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MEETING WARM MOIST AIR
OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RFG

NCZ021>025-038>042-073>077-083>086-088-030100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE SEVERE...IS APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40
MILES AN HOUR. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT 5 PM JUST NORTHWEST OF
WINSTON SALEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE TRIAD. THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL REACH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE TRIAD AND THE ALBEMARLE
WADESBORO AREA NEAR 6 PM. HILLSBOROUGH SANFORD AND RAEFORD MAY SEE
STORMS AS EARLY AS 730 PM...WITH STORMS TO GOLDSBORO AND ROCKY MOUNT
BEFORE 9 PM. SOME GENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
LINE...THROWING THIS TIMING OFF.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS THIS EVENING.

RLH