Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

WEATHER PATTERN SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE WEAK TROUGH OFF COAST
WITH BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A MOSTLY DRY WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

WEAK VORT CENTER OVER WRN VA AT THIS TIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
E-SE. TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING WITH
NVA SETTING UP BY 12Z TUE. WITH AIRMASS  MARGINALLY MOIST AND
MID/UPPER FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO COLUMN, FEATURE WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH TO WORK WITH. ETA DEPICTS CONCENTRATED AREA OF MOISTURE/LIFT
OVER WESTERN VA LATE TONIGHT...DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NC BY 12Z TUE.  NO JET DYNAMICS NOTED UPSTAIRS OVERNIGHT
AND VIRTUALLY NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THUS, THIS SOLUTION WILL BE
IGNORED FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
COVER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION.

BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY AIR COLUMN
SUGGEST WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES POINT TOWARD
MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL AND MOS GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POP THU AS GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEPICTING MOISTURE RETURN IN THE MID LEVELS. ALSO, ETA DEPICTS
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THU.

AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER OH VALLEY FRI-SAT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION...MORE SO SAT.  SOME DISAGREEMENT TO TIMING OF
BOUNDARY, SO CHANCE POPS SUFFICE FOR NOW.  CONTINUED CHANCE POPS SUN
DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MON.

.RAH...NONE.

WSS

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-181105-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
507 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NCZ026-041-042-182200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
502 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER GARNER AND CLAYTON...

AT 500 PM... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM CLAYTON TO GARNER. THESE STORMS WERE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING... VERY HEAVY RAIN... AND
PEA SIZED HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 500 PM AND 545
PM.

EVENING COMMUTERS ALONG HIGHWAY 70 AND INTERSTATE 40 SOUTH FROM
GARNER TO CLAYTON TO NEAR SMITHFIELD CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY
TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM FALLS LAKE TO
FRANKLINTON OVER NORTHERN WAKE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THESE STORMS
MAY AFFECT WAKE FOREST AND LOUISBURG AS WELL BEFORE 545 PM.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH... SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS. GET OFF OPEN FIELDS AND
AWAY FROM WATER INCLUDING SWIMMING POOLS.

BADGETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
509 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM    CLAYTON                   NC   .75 INCH HAIL
08/18/03   JOHNSTON

NCZ026-041-042-182239-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WAKE AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES...

AT 545 PM... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHEAST RALEIGH TO GARNER... COATS CROSSROADS... CLAYTON
AND FOUR OAKS. THESE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WERE 5 MILES SOUTH OF
SMITHFIELD AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FOUR OAKS. THESE STORMS
WERE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING... VERY HEAVY RAIN... AND PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 545 PM AND 630 PM.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS. GET OFF OPEN FIELDS AND
AWAY FROM WATER INCLUDING SWIMMING POOLS.

BADGETT

NCZ041-182300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
608 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER RALEIGH... CARY... AND THE RDU
AIRPORT...

AT 608 PM EDT... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE RDU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO WEST RALEIGH... AND
CARY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH AND WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WAKE COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM. THIS
INCLUDES... THE AREAS FROM THE RDU AIRPORT TO RALEIGH AND CARY.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING... HEAVY RAIN... AND PEA TO POSSIBLY DIME SIZED
HAIL WILL OCCUR.

MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY... INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS. GET
OFF OPEN FIELDS... AND STAY AWAY FROM WATER.

MOTORISTS ALONG I-40 AND 440 FROM RDU AIRPORT TO RALEIGH SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO STOP. MINOR FLOODING WILL IMPEDE TRAFFIC.

BADGETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
610 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0605 PM    10 SW SMITHFIELD          NC   2.00 INCH HAIL
08/18/03   JOHNSTON                       HAIL NEAR I-40/I-95
                                          INTERSECTION

0600 PM    HOPE MILLS                NC   .88 INCH HAIL
08/18/03   CUMBERLAND

0600 PM    10 SW SMITHFIELD          NC   .88 INCH HAIL
08/18/03   JOHNSTON