Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Raleigh, NC

July 29, 2003Montgomery County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 2003, 8:18 PM EDT for Montgomery County, North Carolina. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2003, 8:18 PM EDT (00:18 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2003, 8:45 PM EDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Montgomery County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 29, 3:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 535 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KRAH 300018
SVRRAH
NCC123-300045-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
817 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 817 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER MOUNT GILEAD...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF
  TROY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PEKIN
  CANDOR

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3529 8007 3536 7978 3535 7971 3526 7970
          3517 7961 3515 7988 3512 8003

$$

23

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 2:08 AM EDT, 18 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 2:08 AM EDT, 18 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2003

MOISTURE INCREASED ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON THE GSO
SOUNDING AT 00Z. EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE HINDERED BY LESSER
INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHWEST. BUT FURTHERN SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 70 TO 76 RANGE...THERE WONT BE ANY LACK OF
POTENTIAL THERMODYNAMICS AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE TO HIGH LIKELY POPS ALL BUT
NORTHWEST. JET AXIS IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AS WELL SO SEVERE STORMS
LOOK UNLIKELY. CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS ONE
WOULD EXPECT...SO LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST LOOK ON
TRACK.

WILL KEEP BETTER POPS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...NOSES IN BRIEFLY
WITH EAST OR NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO MY CENTRAL CWFA.
SOMETHING LIKE 20 NORTHWEST TO 40 EAST. FAIR CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY
WITH THE FRONT LIFTING OUT AS LONG WAVE TROF PATTERN SETS UP AGAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SETS UP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HARD TO DETERMINE WHAT DAY(S) MIGHT BE A
BIT MORE LIKELY TO HAVE POPS AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE
CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION.

.RAH...NONE.

MLM

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 4:22 AM EDT, 15 hours 56 minutes before

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-291020-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 5:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

NCZ040-292230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
531 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CHATHAM COUNTY THROUGH 630
PM EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CHATHAM COUNTY.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SILER CITY...HASTY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 5:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before

NCZ027-292245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
538 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NASH COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM
EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SPRING HOPE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING NORTH
AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...DORTCHES...RED
OAK...AND CASTALIA.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

BL

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 6:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

NCZ077-088-292330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT BRAGG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WADE...LINDEN...
GODWIN...DUNN.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

BL

Local storm report, Jul 29, 7:18 PM EDT, 1 hour before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
0718 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0712 PM    3 SW PFAFFTOWN            NC   FLASH FLOOD
07/29/03   FORSYTH                        CREEK WATERS COVERING
                                          VIENNA DOSSIER ROAD

RFG

Local storm report, Jul 29, 7:24 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
724 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 PM    WINSTON-SALEM             NC   FLASH FLOODS
07/29/03   FORSYTH                        FLOODING ACROSS HAYNES
                                          MALL AREA IN WINSTON SALEM.
                                          2-3 FEET OF WATER ON
                                          STRATFORD ROAD AND HAYNES
                                          MALL ROAD, ESPECIALLY AT
                                          1-40 UNDERPASS. MANHOLE
                                          COVERS BLOWN OPEN AND WATER
                                          SHOOTING UPWARD.

Local storm report, Jul 29, 8:09 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
809 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    OAKBORO                   NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/03   STANLY                         A FEW POWER LINES DOWNED
                                          NEAR OAKBORO PER SHERIIFS
                                          OFFICE

KK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 29, 8:47 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Wayne	118 min
Jul 29, 8:57 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Richmond	93 min
Jul 29, 9:40 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Cumberland	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.