Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DECREASE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE TROF AS A FOCUS. SLOW MOVING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING COULD POSE A LOCAL FLOODING THREAT THIS
EVENING. WHILE UNSURE OF TIMING AS MODELS DO DIFFER...UPSTREAM DRY
AIR ANALYZED ON BACK SIDE OF PERSISTENT ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD ADVECT
INTO CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE TROF PULLS NORTHWARD. SINCE
CONVECTION PREFERS MOISTURE GRADIENTS FOR DEVELOPMENT (SEE TODAYS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING STRIKES) WILL RAISE AFTERNOON POPS
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR MONDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING TREND IS
SHORT LIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS TUE AND WED AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CRAVING OUT THE NEXT EAST COAST
UPPER TROF APPROACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS DIVERGED IN THEIR DEPICTION OF
TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS. GFS SHEARS
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTH...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND BEGIN SUNDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S.

KK/DS

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-311050-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
455 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RA

NCZ007-008-022>025-038-039-311945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

...HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL MOVE ACROSS
GRANVILLE...PERSON...GUILFORD...ALAMANCE...ORANGE...DURHAM...DAVIDSON
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THOMASVILLE TO
BAHAMA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BAHAMA...BURLINGTON AND
HIGH POINT. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 AND 85.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

DGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
307 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    THOMASVILLE               NC   WIND DAMAGE
08/31/03   DAVIDSON                       STRONG WINDS TORE OFF THE
                                          ROOF OF A GAS STATIONS
                                          PUMP AREA.

0250 PM    THOMASVILLE               NC   FLOOD
08/31/03   DAVIDSON                       SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED,
                                          INCLUDING INTERSECTION OF
                                          BLAIR AND VIVIAN AND FISHER
                                          FERRY RD. WATER IS NEAR
                                          HOUSES ALONG FALLING CREEK
                                          DRIVE.