Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE REQUIRED TO FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

BEST DYNAMICS FOR RAIN/CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z THEN LIFT NORTH AND EAST.  MID LEVEL DRYING TAKES HOLD
OVER REGION BY 18Z...DWINDLING AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND STILL SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO BE FOUND LOWEST 8K FEET...MAY
NEED TO INTRODUCE SMALL CHC POPS.  TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY
TODAY.WILL LIKELY START OUT JUST A SHADE BELOW CURRENT TEMPS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 60S WITH SOME MID
CLOUDS. THUS WILL LIKELY TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE NW AND
RAISE A TAD IN THE SE.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI..SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT.  850MB FLOW BACKS FROM NW TO SW
OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOLAR SHELTERING.  THUS FAVOR CUTTING HIGH
TEMPS FRI ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH VALUES
CLOSE TO LATEST MAV GUIDANCE.

AIRMASS DRIES OUT FRI NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER DYNAMICS AND
LOW LEVEL NW FLOW SCOURING OUT RESIDUAL SURFACE BASED MOISTURE. WITH
SW FLOW AND PERIODS OF SUN...TEMPS SAT SHOULD EASILY REACH MID/UPPER
60S.

NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO SUN-WED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.RAH...NONE.

WSS

NCZ008>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-061300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
442 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BEFORE MID DAY.  DUE TO THE HIGH WATER LEVELS IN THE MAIN
RIVERS...SOME LOCALIZED CREEK AND STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NCZ073>075-083>086-060730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1223 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN SANDHILLS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN
1 AND 3 AM.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...ESPECIALLY NEAR WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM...
HAMLET AND LAURINBURG.

ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN AT YOUR LOCATION...THEY SHOULD
LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

WSS

NCZ021>023-038-039-060900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE TRIAD REGION...

RAIN ALONG WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TRIAD
REGION THROUGH 4 AM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.  THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO AVOID STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS THAT ARE
KNOWN TO EXPERIENCE HIGH WATER DURING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

WSS

NCZ008>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-061710-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
413 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA...

RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH 8 AM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

MOTORISTS NEED TO AVOID STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS THAT ARE KNOWN TO
EXPERIENCE HIGH WATER DURING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS SINCE THE DEPTH OF THE WATER IS UNKNOWN.

RHJ

NCZ008>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-061300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EST THU MAR 6 2003

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE...

WIDESPREAD RAIN...AT TIME LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID MORNING THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  MOST PLACES HAVE RECEIVED
BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR TWO INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS.

EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS WILL NEED TO AVOID STREETS...HIGHWAYS AND
INTERSECTIONS KNOWN TO FLOOD DURING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. SECONDARY AND
RURAL ROADS MAY BE ESPECIALLY TREACHEROUS IN SPOTS DUE TO WATER
FLOWING OUT OF THE DITCHES.

MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO TRAVEL SLOWER THAN THE POSTED SPEED LIMIT DUE
TO THE WATER COLLECTING ON THE ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY CAUSED
BY THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WSS