Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
329 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY AND TONIGHT).

MAIN CONCERN IS THE CHC FOR SVR WX ON THE ERN PLAINS.

A SHORTWAVE TROF OVR THE AREA HAS KEPT SOME SHWRS AND TSTMS GOING
OVER THE ERN PLAINS TONIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE THIS END IN THE EARLY
MORN HRS.  TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS ON THE ERN PLAINS ARE LOW AND WILL
PUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR THE EARLY MORN HRS.

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
BUT STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.
THERE WILL HOWEVER...STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON A
DRYLINE WILL SETUP SOMEWHERE OVR THE ERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MESO-ETA
SHOWS THE HIGHEST CAPES OF 1500 TO 1900 J/KG OVR KIOWA...BENT...
PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
0-6KM SHEAR IS 4CAST TO BE 35 TO 40 KTS AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO
-6 C.  SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR
STORMS OVR THE FAR E COUNTIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVR THE STATE TONIGHT AND I WILL KEEP
SOME SHWRS/TSTMS GOING OVR THE FAR SE PLAINS UNTIL LATE NIGHT AS A
RESULT. OTRW WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT FROM W TO E. LOW TEMPS MANY
AREAS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL BE OVR
THE AREA. SRLY WINDS OVR THE SE PLAINS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SAT-THU).

MAIN CONCERNS AMOUNT OF WARMING AND WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SUMMER WX TO MAKE
A RETURN ACROSS COLORADO...JUST IN TIME FOR THE SOLSTICE AT 1 PM
MDT SAT. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT
MOVES INTO KANSAS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. 80KT JET CORE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS THE STATE...WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE...WITH WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS
UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DROP
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LAST NIGHTS GFS BROUGHT THIS STRONG TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH A DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE. HOWEVER LATEST VERSION FURTHER NORTH AND NOT AS DEEP WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...
KEEPING AREA IN SW FLOW THROUGH WED AND A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MTNS AND PLAINS TUE WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH
WED...AND THE COOLING TREND INTACT FOR THU WITH SOME SORT OF TROUGH
PASSAGE.  -MW

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>089-093>099-211300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1044 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003.........CORRECT TYPO.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

SATELLITE DATA LATE THIS MORNING WAS TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK OVER ALL
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
IS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ROTATING SUPERCELL
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
REGION.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...HEAVY RAINS ON SATURATED GROUNDS
MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL AREAS RECEIVING FLOODING RAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 1 PM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

HODANISH