Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
200 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT/SATURDAY).

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AT THIS TIME...WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD LINGER
THE LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS...MAYBE PAST MIDNIGHT.  HAVE
ALREADY HAD ONE CONFIRMED SEVERE STORM WITH LARGE HAIL...SO A FEW
MORE SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA
WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR...THUS WILL GO WITH JUST ISOLD
POPS OVER THE SW AND CNTRL MTNS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS...MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL GET THINGS GOING
AGAIN.  WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD POPS FAR EAST.  GUIDANCE HIGHS
FOR TOMORROW ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THESE NUMBERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY).

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
UPPER FLOW.  ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND WEAK QG
LIFT FROM PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. COULDNT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED PULSE TYPE SVR TSTORMS SAT EVENING...AS CAPES OF AROUND
1000...AND 0-6KM SHEARS ARE MARGINAL (20-30 KTS). HAVE SPREAD SOME
SCATTERED POPS ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TSTORMS
SHOULD DIE OFF DIURNALLY SAT NIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

SIMILAR TYPE SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON...WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS AREA AND UPSLOPE CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  ETA HINTS AT A SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR
SUNDAY WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND
LOWER CAPES. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS AREA-WIDE BOTH DAYS...WHICH
STILL LOOKS GOOD. HAVE WARMED UP MONDAY A FEW DEGREES.

AVN SHOWS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HENCE AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.  THEN PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE INTO FRIDAY...AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. -KT

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>089-093>099-131500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
655 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FEW POSSIBLY
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY RAIN...

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST COLORADO,
REMAINS RIPE FOR CONVECTION.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS FULL OF CONVECTIVE
ENERGY AND CONTAINS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
CONSEQUENTLY, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
ALTHOUGH STEERING WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY, A
FEW STORMS COULD STILL MOVE SLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE FLOODING.

SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE ON THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW...AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT THIS
TIME THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AFTER 1 PM TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO, CO
205 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0140 PM    2 N BRANSON               CO   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   LAS ANIMAS                     REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0155 PM    KIM                       CO   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   LAS ANIMAS                     REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.