Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Phoenix, AZ

September 6, 2003Gila County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 6, 2003, 3:13 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 6, 2003, 3:13 PM MST (22:13 UTC)
Expired: Sep 6, 2003, 4:15 PM MST
In force: 62 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1649 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -81 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1453 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 062213
SVRPSR
AZC007-062315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
311 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 415 PM MST

* AT 303 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CLAYPOOL...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  GLOBE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
  GLOBE/MIAMI
  HIGHWAY 70 EAST OF GLOBE
  HIGHWAY 77

DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3358 11097 3336 11098 3315 11073 3348 11029

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 6, 9:15 AM MST, 5 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 9:15 AM MST, 5 hours 58 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-062245-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA
915 AM MST SAT SEP 6 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A
LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE DESERTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE OVER ALL OF OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN STATES MONDAY...EXTENDING SOMEWHAT INTO ARIZONA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE MONDAY...INCREASING
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO
FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA SHOW THE AIRMASS TO BE
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...BUT DRYING ABOVE 550
MB. CAPES FROM SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA ARE IN THE 2000 AND
3000 RANGE...WITH LIFTED INDICES WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE. A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WAS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COCONINO COUNTY MOVING INTO NAVAJO COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH STEERING WINDS...BEING FROM THE WEST...ARE NOT VERY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA...THE PRESENCE OF THE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA IS OF SOME
CONCERN. THUS...THE MID SHIFT DID DECIDE TO GO AHEAD AND ADD A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR THE NORTH PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. DRIER AIR SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS
WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DIFFERENT THAN
IT DID ON MODELS A COUPLE DAYS AGO WHEN WORKING LAST. THE TROUGH
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES ISNT NEARLY AS DEEP AS MODELS
DEPICTED A FEW DAYS AGO. THUS...THE DRYING THAT WAS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DUE TO A STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOT NEARLY SO APPARENT. IN FACT...MOISTURE
SEEMS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY MONDAY FROM A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...PERHAPS THE REMAINS OF KEVIN. THUS...THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN PUT BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BERKOVITZ

.PSR...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 11:35 AM MST, 3 hours 38 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-070100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1135 AM MST SAT SEP 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SALT RIVER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 6, 1:05 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila, Maricopa	55 min
Sep 6, 1:10 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila, Maricopa	50 min
Sep 6, 1:37 PM MST	Tornado Warning	PSR	Maricopa	38 min
Sep 6, 2:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	57 min
Sep 6, 3:16 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	74 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.