Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Phoenix, AZ

July 15, 2003Gila County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2003, 3:43 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2003, 3:43 PM MST (22:43 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2003, 4:45 PM MST
In force: 62 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 707 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -459 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3052 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 152243
SVRPSR
AZC007-152345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
342 PM MST TUE JUL 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 445 PM MST

* AT 335 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER GLOBE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MIAMI AT 350 PM MST
  CLAYPOOL AT 355 PM MST

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3302 11077 3315 11065 3322 11045 3358 11079
          3346 11103 3324 11092

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 9:35 AM MST, 6 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 9:35 AM MST, 6 hours 8 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-152245-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA
935 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST TWO DAYS SHOULD MODERATE
DOWNWARDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER ARIZONA SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPPER WIND FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND MUCH OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL IMPORT SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY CAME FROM
HURRICANE CLAUDETTE LATER THIS WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF DUST STORMS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DESERT
REGIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...
HISTORY WILL BE MADE TODAY IN THE PHOENIX AREA UNLESS SOME COOLING
FROM THUNDERSTORMS GETS INTO THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
MINIMUM OF 96 DEGREES THIS MORNING BREAKS THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR
WARMEST MINIMUM AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...AND BY 3 DEGREES. MEANWHILE
...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TO AND TO THE
EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL
MOTION WERE NOTED ON BOTH THE ETA AND NGM MODELS TODAY...AND THIS
PROBABLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ARIZONA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED OVER NORTHERN
BAJA THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ALONE
FOR NOW. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE MODERATELY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION SHOWING UP OVER ARIZONA TODAY
ON BOTH THE ETA AND NGM MODELS. THIS ALONG WITH THE VERY WARM
AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH COULD BE
SETTING US UP FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ARIZONA
DESERTS. NOTICED THAT SPC PUTS US IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR LATER TODAY. WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. MEANWHILE...I DO
NOT PLAN FOR ANY MAJOR UPDATES. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR
MARICOPA AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY FOR TODAY.
BERKOVITZ

.PSR...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
       ZONES 22...23...27...AND 28...MARICOPA COUNTY INCLUDING THE
       GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL
       COUNTY.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 6:00 AM MST, 9 hours 43 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-160100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

VERY HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.