Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Phoenix, AZ

August 25, 2003Gila County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 25, 2003, 3:16 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 25, 2003, 3:16 PM MST (22:16 UTC)
Expired: Aug 25, 2003, 4:15 PM MST
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 592 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -270 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1686 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 252216
SVRPSR
AZC007-252315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
314 PM MST MON AUG 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 415 PM MST

* AT 304 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR             
  INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PUNKIN CENTER...OR ABOUT 50
  MILES NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX.  THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
  PUNKIN CENTER 

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH YOU SHOULD PREPARE
FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD TAKE SHELTER...PREFERABLY IN A STRONG BUILDING AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3370 11107 3368 11115 3361 11123 3377 11137
          3385 11138 3394 11143 3403 11144 3390 11126
          3380 11115 3378 11106 3374 11102

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 25, 10:30 AM MST, 4 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 25, 10:30 AM MST, 4 hours 46 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-252245-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST MON AUG 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE EAST THEN SOUTH IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF
ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...HURRICANE IGNACIO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER WEATHER. A SLOW
DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE WEST MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND IT
IS EVEN MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS JUST
NORTHEAST OF LA PAZ BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...AND MOVING NORTH
NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY COMING IN FROM THE EAST...THEN MOISTURE WITH THE HELP OF
HURRICANE IGNACIO MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. WILL MONITOR THIS AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN MOISTURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED IN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND AN INCREASED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.PSR...NONE.

ELLIS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 25, 6:00 AM MST, 9 hours 16 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-260100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST MON AUG 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE AIRMASS OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA REMAINS VERY MOIST
AND RATHER UNSTABLE. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOST
NUMEROUS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WHERE STORMS FORM...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO FLOODING OF WASHES...
ROADWAY DIPS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS. GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
IGNACIO MOVES NORTH AND INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS INCLUDING
ROADWAYS AND WASHES...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

.INSTRUCTIONS TO SPOTTERS...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BRECKENRIDGE

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.