Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-240545-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE EAST THEN SOUTH IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS
CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF ARIZONA. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE IGNACIO
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MAINLY IN THE EAST
AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
MOVED NORTH AND DISSIPATED BY LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
THAT WERE IN IMPERIAL COUNTY AND THE WEST PORTION OF EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY THIS MORNING SHIFTED WEST MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST OVER LA PAZ COUNTY FROM A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE MARICOPA COUNTY OVER YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AND
SOUTH OVER PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WEST AND INTO THE DESERT AREAS
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE AIRMASS IS PLENTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE EAST ARE
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...THAT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING THERE WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE IGNACIO ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IN ARIZONA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING...PARTIULARLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING IN THE ARIZONA
PORTION OF OUR AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ANOTHER DAY BEFORE ISSUING A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...BUT UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ALL THE MOISTURE EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
THE WEATHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THUS...HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

.PSR...NONE.

ELLIS

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-240200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
430 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE AIRMASS OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA IS QUITE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WEST OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
WHERE STORMS DO FORM...THERE IS A POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...FOR
STRONG GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING OF WASHES AND LOW SPOTS INCLUDING DIPS IN THE ROADS.
STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE
REMAINS OF HURRICANE IGNACIO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS INCLUDING FLOODED ROADWAYS AND
BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF A WARNING IS ISSUED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

.INSTRUCTIONS TO SPOTTERS...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX, AZ
348 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2003

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 PM    QUEEN CREEK AND VICINITY  AZ   WIND DAMAGE
08/22/03   MARICOPA AND PINAL             200 POWER POLES BLOWN
                                          DOWN...THOUSANDS OF TILE
                                          ROOF SHINGLES BLOWN OFF
                                          HOMES...HUGE BUSINESS SIGN
                                          IN CITY OF QUEEN CREEK
                                          BLOWN DOWN...TIN SHEDS
                                          TWISTED BEYOND
                                          RECOGNITION...HUNDREDS OF
                                          LARGE MATURE TREES DOWN IN
                                          STREETS AND ONTO
                                          HOMES...NUMBER OF VEHICLES
                                          WITH WINDSHIEDS BLOWN
                                          OUT...FARM IRRIGATION
                                          SPRINKLERS TWISTED INTO
                                          HEAPS...BLOCK WALL IN
                                          NEIGHBORHOOD BLOWN
                                          DOWN...HORSE KILLED EITHER
                                          BY BEING BLOWN INTO
                                          BUILDING OR BUILDING
                                          COLLAPSING ON IT. REPORTED
                                          BY LOCAL MEDIA.

FOWLE