Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Issued

Aug 22, 2003, 10:17 PM MST (05:17 UTC)

Expired

Aug 22, 2003, 11:15 PM MST

In force

58 min

Issued by

NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Maricopa County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 230517
SVRPSR
AZC013-021-230615-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1014 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PHOENIX EAST VALLEY...
  EAST CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 1115 PM MST

* AT 953 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED 
TO DETECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER QUEEN CREEK AND GILBERT
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH AND WEST INTO THE 
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX EAST VALLEY. 

DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND 
UNDER-PASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS 
THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF WASHES...SMALL STREAMS AND 
RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOOD WATERS 
THREATEN.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3323 11199 3314 11153 3348 11140 3359 11194

$$

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 22, 9:50 PM MST, 27 minutes earlier.

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-231045-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS TO OUR NORTH...
AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS MORE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO SPEND ON THIS DISCUSSION AS SVR STORMS BREAKING
OUT NEAR THE GREATER PHX AREA AT PRESS TIME. GUST FRONT FROM SVR WX
DOWN NEAR KTUS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO INITIATE THIS
CONVECTION FURTHER NW. LIFTING FROM GUST FRONT COULD ALSO SERVE TO
POP OTHER STORMS AROUND SCENTRAL AZ NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL UPDATE
GRIDS/ZONES ACCORDINGLY TO COVERAGE RATHER THAN UNCERTAINTY
TERMINOLOGY.

AFTER TONIGHT...MODELS REBUILD WRN EXTENSION OF WRN US RIDGE OVER
THE WEEKEND...PUTTING MOST OF CWFA IN A DEEPER ELY FLOW...BUT NO BIG
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. BASED ON UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY TONIGHT...DECIDED TO ALSO BACK OFF ON MOST POPS TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE AMS MAY GET PRETTY WORKED OVER. FURTHER
W...A BIT OF DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE THIS EVENING...SO DECIDED TO
ALSO DOWNGRADE POPS OUT THERE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. UPDATES
OUT SHORTLY.    ESTLE

.PSR...NONE.

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-230100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TODAY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD EASILY CAUSE
FLOODING OF WASHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE
BETTER POTENTIAL INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA NEAR THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WHERE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEND TO BE OF AN ISOLATED NATURE.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.