Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 21, 2003, 7:20 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 21, 2003, 7:20 PM MST (02:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 21, 2003, 7:45 PM MST
- In force
- 25 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Gila County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 911 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2185 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 38 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KPSR 220220 SVRPSR AZC007-220245- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 716 PM MST THU AUG 21 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LARGE HAIL... CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 745 PM MST * AT 707 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL GILA COUNTY...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLOBE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CROSS HIGHWAY 60...ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLOBE AROUND 730 PM. MOTORISTS DRIVING HIGHWAY 60 NORTHEAST OF GLOBE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE DANGERS OF HAIL. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN PHOENIX. LAT...LON 3353 11075 3340 11053 3355 11033 3370 11062 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 21, 2:55 PM MST, 4 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 21, 2:55 PM MST, 4 hours 25 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-220545- SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 255 PM MST THU AUG 21 2003 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MEANS A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN. IN ADDITION...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND MIGRATE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY SATURDAY...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS SPOTTED NORTH OF YUMA PROVING GROUNDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE GOES TOTAL PRECIP WATER LOOP SHOWED OVERALL DECREASE IN VALUES EARLY THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE LARGE COMPLEX IN NORTHERN MEX DISSIPATED MUCH EARLIER...AND SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS STILL LINGERING. RADAR ALSO SHOWED CELLS TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THAT WERE BACK-BUILDING TOWARD MARICOPA CTY LINE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT...WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF JET DYNAMICS ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE RIDGE TO SHARPEN UP A BIT TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY. ALONG WITH A SHARPER RIDGE...AND ELEVATED RH VALUES...STRONG UPWARD MOTIONS ARE PROGGED WITH AT LEAST ONE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. 500MB OMEGA BULLSEYE IS DEPICTED ABOUT OVER YUMA-TUCSON BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE NEIGHBORING WFOS AGREE ON AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM TONIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL BE TRICKY. TEMPERATURES HELD DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN PHX DOWN A DEG OR 2. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE FROM NORTHERN GULF AND WRN SONORA...INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT. SO...A MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF STORMS TODAY...COUPLED WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP OUTBREAKS TONIGHT. SIPPLE .PSR...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 21, 6:00 AM MST, 13 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-220100- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 600 AM MST THU AUG 21 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.