Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

March 16, 2003Maricopa County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 16, 2003, 12:15 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 16, 2003, 12:15 PM MST (19:15 UTC)
Expired: Mar 16, 2003, 1:00 PM MST
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Maricopa County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Yuma Intl Airpor, AZ (KYUM), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1399 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 205 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

561 
WUUS55 KPSR 161915
SVRPSR
AZC013-162000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1214 PM MST SUN MAR 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 100 PM MST

* AT 1207 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF TONOPAH...MOVING NORTHEAST 
AT   25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 10 WEST OF 
TONOPAH...AS WELL AS FARM LAND AND OPEN DESERT. 

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3350 11333 3337 11321 3340 11302 3350 11291
          3359 11324

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 16, 10:30 AM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 10:30 AM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-162245-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST SUN MAR 16 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM IS SPREADING SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR EAST ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY. RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
EVEN COOLER AIR...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM OVER AND EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE COOLEST DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY STRONG JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
...ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS MOVED EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY. A COUPLE OF
OTHER RELATIVELY WEAKER WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WIND...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TODAY WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER MONDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY
FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.PSR...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 6:00 AM MST, 6 hours 15 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-170100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AS WELL AS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST OR SAND WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE DUST OR
SAND MAY RESULT IN SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500 FEET OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 16, 1:32 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa, Pinal	33 min
Mar 16, 2:11 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa, Pinal	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.