Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Phoenix, AZ

July 30, 2003Gila County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 30, 2003, 4:17 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 30, 2003, 4:17 PM MST (23:17 UTC)
Expired: Jul 30, 2003, 5:00 PM MST
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 708 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -83 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 789 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 302317
SVRPSR
AZC007-310000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
414 PM MST WED JUL 30 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 500 PM MST

* AT 414 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINKELMAN...MOVING      
  NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN 
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. TAKE COVER IN A 
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3295 11085 3297 11063 3316 11069 3315 11094

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 30, 2:38 PM MST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 2:38 PM MST, 1 hour 39 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-310545-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
238 PM MST WED JUL 30 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRYING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A CONTINUING DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR PICS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF
OVER MUCH OF NRN AZ...INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MTS.
STORMS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO POP OVER SOUTHEAST AZ. NOT A LOT TO
ADD TO THIS MORNINGS THOUGHTS REGARDING TONIGHTS WEATHER. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PLENTY MOIST AND BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE BY THE
MINUTE AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED RATHER RAPIDLY TODAY FOR SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING. AGAIN...FLOW ALOFT IS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST AZ INTO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ. AS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AVN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK VORT LOBE OVER NRN MEX ROTATING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE AVN HAS THIS FEATURE ROTATING
THROUGH SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
STORMS. WILL GO FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP AND MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WILL HOLD OFF ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER TO GO
CATEGORICAL (SCATTERED) FOR MARICOPA COUNTY...NORTHWEST PINAL
COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

BEYOND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE MID TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER NRN CA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY INTO WRN TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
WHERE IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND HEADS BACK TOWARD CA.
DURING THIS TRANSITION...THE FLOW OVER AZ AND SRN CA WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THE GFS HAS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AREAS
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THUS...WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU/FRI. THE MRF CONTINUES SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER OUR WRN CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.
NOT SURE JUST HOW DRY IT WILL GET...BUT WILL SHOW A DECREASING TREND
IN ACTIVITY SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...WILL ALSO HAVE
TEMPS WARMING A FEW DEG OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. NOT COMFORTABLE
COMPLETELY REMOVING POPS FROM THE EXTENDED...AND WILL HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN CWA...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. OVERALL...NOT A
LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WEVE BEEN CARRYING FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  LW

.PSR...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 6:00 AM MST, 10 hours 17 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-310100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST WED JUL 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 30, 3:07 PM MST, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...ADDITIONAL REPORTS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX, AZ
307 PM MST WED JUL 30 2003

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    PHOENIX                   AZ   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/03   MARICOPA                       TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. POWER OUTAGE AFFECTED
                                          21000 PEOPLE. REPORTED BY
                                          ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVICE

0920 PM    BUCKEYE                   AZ   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/03   MARICOPA                       POWER LINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVICE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 29, 5:33 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	La Paz, Maricopa	42 min
Jul 29, 5:44 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	La Paz, Maricopa	31 min
Jul 29, 6:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Gila	28 min
Jul 29, 6:15 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	La Paz	45 min
Jul 29, 7:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	La Paz	42 min
Jul 29, 7:31 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Pinal	44 min
Jul 29, 7:56 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	64 min
Jul 29, 9:04 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PSR	Maricopa	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.