Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 2003, 4:09 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 29, 2003, 4:09 PM MST (23:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 29, 2003, 4:45 PM MST
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Maricopa County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 4:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 469 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -230 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1413 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WUUS55 KPSR 292309
SVRPSR
AZC013-292345-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
407 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
* UNTIL 445 PM MST
* AT 357 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF WICKENBURG...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
THIS INCLUDES THE AREA BETWEEN WICKENBURG AND MORRISTOWN ALONG
HIGHWAY 60.
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MST
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
LAT...LON 3395 11302 3387 11260 3387 11262 3393 11249
3400 11281
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 2:50 PM MST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 2:50 PM MST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-300545- SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 250 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2003 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ANOTHER DAY BEFORE MIGRATING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MID WEEK...AND OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THEN NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRYING IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...WITH A TYPICAL LOW-GRADE MONSOON FORECAST IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. .DISCUSSION... SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR PICS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY...YET THINGS APPEAR TO BE SLOW TO GET GOING OVER SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN AZ (AND RIGHTFULLY SO AFTER TWO RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS). FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE EAST OVER CENTRAL AZ AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THUS...ANY ACTIVITY WE GET IN THE LOWER DESERTS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER SUNSET. A QUICK RE-CAP OF THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NRN CA. DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND BOTH OF THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PROGED TO ROTATE THROUGH NRN AZ AND INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE CLOSED LOW AND ACROSS NRN MEX. THE THUNDERSTORMS PARTIALLY INITIATED BY THESE TWO FEATURES COULD MEET UP OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING OVER OUR CWA. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR WRN ZONES TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN (POSSIBLY OVER AZ ZONE 21 AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST). BEYOND TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE HIGH SHIFTS BACK EASTWARD. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PROGED FOR WED ...AND WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. BY THU...THE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NRN NEW MEXICO WITH THE LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA...WHICH COULD INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE STATE AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGED BY THE MODELS TO WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS MEXICO...AND UP INTO ARIZONA DURING THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. BEYOND FRI...THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME DRYING OVER OUR WRN CWA AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST SAT THROUGH TUE. LW .PSR...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 6:00 AM MST, 10 hours 9 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-300100- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 600 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OVER ALL THE DESERT AREAS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.