Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 2003, 2:14 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 28, 2003, 2:14 PM MST (21:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 28, 2003, 3:15 PM MST
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Maricopa County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 252 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -263 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1521 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 65 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 28 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WUUS55 KPSR 282114
SVRPSR
AZC013-282215-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
212 PM MST MON JUL 28 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
* UNTIL 315 PM MST
* AT 203 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SUNFLOWER...OR ABOUT 12
MILES SOUTH OF ROOSEVELT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
* THE STORM WILL BE AFFECTING THE APACHE AND CANYON LAKE AREAS AS
WELL AS TORTILLA FLAT BY 220 PM.
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.
LAT...LON 3347 11108 3349 11161 3380 11152 3393 11150
3390 11143 3373 11134 3363 11123 3368 11116
3351 11105
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 28, 9:47 AM MST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 9:47 AM MST, 4 hours 27 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-282245- SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 947 AM MST MON JUL 28 2003 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA MID WEEK...FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DISCUSSION... SAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OUR MAIN CONCERN. ONE AREA OF WEATHER HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTHWEST FROM YUMA INTO MEXICO DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS OVER NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY...NEAR THE TOWN OF WICKENBURG AND SOUTH THEREOF. THIS AREA ALREADY RECEIVED ABOUT ONE AND A QUARTER INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE LAST TWELVE HOURS...AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD (UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT) THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG VORT MAX TO ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME...THEN THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FROM 00-06Z THIS EVENING. TO SUPPORT THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...12Z PSR AND NYL RAOBS THIS MORNING BOTH SHOW A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING AND MOISTENING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN RECOVER TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY. AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE AREA...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEVADA/UTAH WHERE IT WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE MIGRATING BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MID WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN BACK TO A LOW GRADE MONSOON WED/THU...AS THE EASTERLY WAVES LESSEN IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY...AND THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTHEAST/EAST TO A MORE SOUTHEAST FLOW (MORE TO COME IN THIS AFTERNOONS DISCUSSION). FOR NOW...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED. LW .PSR...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 6:00 AM MST, 8 hours 14 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-290100- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 600 AM MST MON JUL 28 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MORNING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING DUST CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 5:20 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 55 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.