Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 9, 2003, 1:39 AM MST for Gila County, Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 9, 2003, 1:39 AM MST (08:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 9, 2003, 2:00 AM MST
- In force
- 21 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Gila County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1296 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2324 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 1 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGUS55 KPSR 090839
FFWPSR
AZC007-013-091000-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
139 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE TONTO
NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS...AND FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MARICOPA
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
* UNTIL 300 AM MST
* AT 122 AM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN ALONG STATE ROUTE 88 NEAR ROOSEVELT...AND AREAS SOUTH
THEREOF. NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND WASHES CROSSING STATE ROUTE 88
WILL HAVE SWIFTLY RUNNING WATER.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
PHOENIX.
LAT...LON 3365 11133 3349 11127 3348 11085 3375 11098
3377 11105
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 8, 9:50 PM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 9:50 PM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-091045-
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA
950 PM MST MON SEP 8 2003
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY.
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. IT WILL
ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS COMING
WEEKEND...AS WELL AS A RECOVERY IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
.DISCUSSION...
BROAD NEG TILT UPPER TROF NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WITH AZ ON THE
SERN FLANK OF THE TROF AND UNDER AN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALF. WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU THE FLOW KICKED OFF ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE
CENTRAL DESERTS EARLIER...BUT THEY HAVE NOW MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH SKIES AT 930 PM GENLY CLEAR WEST OF PHX. GOES PWAT
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVELY HIGH VALUES AT AND OVER 1.5 INCHES BEING
ADVECTED NEWD INTO SCNTRL AZ AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE PAC NW
TROF. LATEST GUIDANCE CONSISTENT THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
LATER TONIGHT OVER OUR ERN CWA...WITH THE TROF MOVING DOWN INTO THE
WESTERN STATES TOMORROW GIVING STRONG DYNAMICS AND UPPER FORCING TO
OUR ERN ZONES. APPEARS MAX UVVS SHOULD BE SETTING IN BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...AND GOOD
DIFLUENCE IS ADVERTISED IN THE UPPER STREAMLINE FORECAST FOR THE ERN
CWA EARLY AFTN THRU ERY EVE. THUS CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
NICELY ON TRACK...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
ERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY MARICOPA COUNTY EAST MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVE. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA NOW HAS 74 PCT POPS FOR TUE
FOR PHX...UP FROM 57 PCT PREV RUN. FWC GUIDANCE FROM NGM ALSO UP
FROM 13 PCT TO 24 PCT. WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES TOMORROW...STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING THAT SHOULD
BE ACTING ON THEM. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR
TUE SEEMS A GOOD BET. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND NO
CONSEQUENTIAL CHANGES PLANNED ON THIS SHIFT. 11
.PSR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ZONES 22...23...
24...27...AND 28...MARICOPA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY TUESDAY.Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 8, 6:00 AM MST, 19 hours 39 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-090100- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 600 AM MST MON SEP 8 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL EXTEND INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY...PROVIDING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 3:05 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Gila, Maricopa | 55 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.