Special Marine Warning 83, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 PM EST MON NOV 24 2003

NOTHING LASTS FOREVER...NOT EVEN SOME FINE NOVEMBER DAYS......
THE GFS HAS INIT BETTER THAN THE ETA WITH THIS MDL RUN AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED. ITS PCPN TIMING FOR TNGT IS SLGTLY FASTER THAN THE
ETA...BUT OTRWISE WE ARE SPLITTING HRS. ON 12Z ANLYS H5 TROF
ALRDY HAS ITS STGST WINDS ON ITS E SIDE AND MDL NEG TILT/LIFTING
SOLN APRS RIGHT ON TRACK. FOR US THIS WILL MEAN ABT A 1-4 HR PCPN
EVENT TNGT WITH HVYST PCPN AND LONGEST DURATION CLOSEST TO LIFTING
TROF IN NRN ZNS. TIMING WILL BE CLOSE...BUT PCPN MIGHT JUST CHG TO
SNOW B4 ENDING FAR NRN ZNS. REST OF FCST LOOKS SIM...A RAPID
MODIFICATION IN STORE FOR TUE AND WED WITH THE NEXT PCPN SHOT LATER
ON THANKSGIVING. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS NEXT CFP LOOKS COLDER...MIGHT
ACTUALLY GET US BELOW NML OR FEEL LIKE IT IS BELOW NML.

MDLS ARE VERY SIM IN HANDLING THE APCHG SYS FOR TNGT. BASED ON CUR
RADAR SIGNATURE WE ARE GOING WITH THE SLGLTY FASTER GFS. BASICALLY
IT PUTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN DURG THIS EVE. MIGHT TRAIL AFTER MIDN
IN FAR NERN ZNS. WHL TROF IS CARRYING A NEG TILT POSTURE...IT IS
LIFTING TOO FAR TO OUR N AND W PLUS SHORT PCPN DURATION TO GIVE US
ANY HYDRO PBLMS. WE/LL MOVE THE CDFNT THRU OUR CWA 1-4Z. IT APRS
A BIT OF THE PCPN MAY LINGER BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF
GUSTINESS JUST BEHIND THE FNT...BUT THE LLJ LIFTS NEWD PRECEDING ITS
PASSAGE. THE TIME OF THE DAY HELPS ALSO AND HIEST POST FNTL GUSTS
SHLD PBLY BE BTWN 30-40 MPH. FAR N COLD AIR IS BARRELING IN AS PCPN
IS SHUTTING OFF. THERE MAY BE ENUF OF AN OVERLAP TO BRIEFLY CHG THE
RAIN TO SNOW AND WILL ADD TO FAR NRN ZNS. THEN ALL THE MDLS SINK THE
INVERSION LIKE A ROCK AND ALL ZONES SHLD CLR QUICKLY AFT MIDN.  IT
APRS NO SC WILL HAVE A CHC TO FORM UNDER THE INVERSION WITH THIS
ONE. GUID MINS APR REASONABLE.

JUST LIKE THAT THE CAA IS DONE ON TUE DAY FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. IT
LINGERS A BIT LONGER IN NERN ZNS AGN...OTRWISE AIR MASS STARTS ITS
RAPID RECOVERY. CHILLY AIR MASS MUST BE PRETTY SHALLOW GIVEN HOW
WARM THE H8 TEMPS ARE AND HOW LOW THE MAX TEMPS ARE. OVERALL FULL
SUN MACROS SUGG BECAUSE OF THIS SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS OF GOING ABV
GUID FAR S...COMP CNTRL AND WITH THE COLDER GFS MOS N. WE/LL FOLLOW.
ITS NOT SUMMER...SO CONVECTIVE TEMPS WON/T BE REACHED. THE H2.5 JET
LINGERS FOREVER OVR US AND ALL THE MDLS ARE HINTING AT SOME HI LVL
MSTR. FOR NOW WE/LL LEAVE IT MOSUNNY.

BIGGER HEADACHES COME TUE NGT WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE MIN TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO CI. PBLY WHY THEY INVENTED THE FAIR WORDING IN
FORECASTS IF THERE EVER WAS A FAIR NGT. ALL THE MDLS HAVE THIS CI.
FCSTD MSTR IS ENUF FOR US NOT TO RADIATE TO THE DEWPTS AND WILL GO
CLOSE TO GUID. IT SHLD BE A FROSTY MRNG THRUT THE RGN. THE MDLS
DON/T MOVE THE H2.5 JET OR OUR CI MSTR ON WED. AGN W/O THIS CI...WE
WOULD BE BOOSTING MAX TEMPS ABT A CAT ABV GUID...BUT SINCE ITS FCSTD
BY ALL THE MDLS...WE WILL GO GUID FOR NOW.

WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTDD...(TU CTP) THE NEXT TROF HAS BECOME
SHARPER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND ALL THE MED RNG MDLS ARE FCSTG A PCPN
EVENT FOR THU/THU NGT. SOME ARE KEYING ON THU NGT WHL THE GFS IS
SUGG IT SHLD ARRIVE DURG THE DAY. WE WILL COMP BTWN THE TWO FOR
NOW...BUT ENUF CONSIST WITH ALL THE MDLS TO UP POPS TO LKLY. THEN
CHILLIER AND COLDER WX BEHIND THIS NEXT EVENT. NEXT NEXT SHOT AT
PCPN COMES LATER MON.

MARINE...WE WILL BE HOISTING SCA EVERYWHERE IN BLUSTERY FLOW BEHIND
THE CDFNT. TIDAL PBLMS S/B OVER AS THE NEXT ASTRON IS LWR AND THEN
WINDS GO WRLY.

*****************************************************************

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. PAST PERFORMANCE
IS NO INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS. YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY. STILL
WATERS RUN DEEP. LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP...YADDA YADDA YADDA.

THEY HAVE BEEN CLAMORING AT THE ANALUGS ARE US DOORS...RINGING THE
BELLS...PHONES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...ETC. WELL FOR THOSE ONE
OR TWO INTERESTED PEOPLE HERE ARE THE ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER. BASED ON A LATE 80S STUDY THIS CURRENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
NOVEMBER (MAY BE A TOP 10) COMES CLOSE TO GIVING THE KOD FOR AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD WINTER. BASED ON PAST WARM NOVS...THERE IS ONLY A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD WINTER. UNSEASONABLY COLD
DEFINED AS THE LOWEST 30 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS. THIS GOES BACK TO
THE 1980S STRATIFICATION OF 30-40-30 USED TO DEFINE BLO-NML-ABV
TEMPS.

BELOW ARE THE BEST FIT FOR ALL THREE AUTUMN MONTHS. WE USED AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SEPTEMBER...NORMAL OCTOBER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
NOVEMBER. THE ENSO STATES WERE DERIVED FROM WAF JMA DEFINITION.
THESE ARE ALL BASED ON PHILADELHIA/S CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS.

YEAR        ENSO STATE    ENSUING     ENSUING  ENSUING  SNOWFALL
                             DEC         JAN       FEB

1929          WARM          38.2        35.6      40.1     8.2
1945         NEUTRAL        29.8        33.8      34.5    18.7
1993         NEUTRAL        38.4        27.4      33.2    23.1
1998         NEUTRAL (?)    42.0        35.0      38.0    12.5

AVG                         37.1        33.0      36.5    15.6
1971-2000 NML               37.4        32.3      34.8    19.3

THAT LATE 1980S STUDY WAS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD OCTOBER (ESPECIALLY)
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NOVEMBERS. TO EXPAND THE SAMPLE A BIT THE
FOLLOWING ARE ANALOGS FOR A NML OCTOBER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
NOVEMBER. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SEASONS ARE REPEATED.

YEAR        ENSO STATE    ENSUING     ENSUING  ENSUING   SNOWFALL
                             DEC         JAN       FEB

1877         UNKNOWN        40.8        33.0      36.9   UNKNOWN
1883         UNKNOWN        37.6        30.2      40.2   UNKNOWN
1902          WARM          33.7        32.6      36.5    16.8
1929          WARM          38.2        35.6      40.1     8.2
1930          WARM          36.6        36.2      37.4     4.1
1935         NEUTRAL        31.5        29.9      27.6    23.1
1945         NEUTRAL        29.8        33.8      34.5    18.7
1963         MDT EL NINO    27.9        33.0      31.8    32.9
1982         STG EL NINO    41.3        34.1      34.0    35.9
1993         NEUTRAL        38.4        27.4      33.2    23.1
1994         NEUTRAL        41.9        38.2      31.5     9.8
1998         NEUTRAL (?)    42.0        35.0      38.0    12.5

AVG                         36.6        33.3      35.1    18.5
1971-2000 NML               37.4        32.3      34.8    19.3

UNLESS THE LAST FEW GFS ARE WAY OFF OR THERE IS A BIG PAT SHIFT AFT
THE FIRST WEEK OF DEC...WE WOULDN/T BE BETTING THE SUMMER HOME WE
DON/T HOME ON A VERY COLD DECEMBER...OTHERWISE...HAVE A HAPPY
THANKSGIVING AND A GREAT WINTER NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS.

.PHI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
       AND DE BAY.

TFG

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 AM EST MON NOV 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY 30 MPH
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RNS

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-250400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EST MON NOV 24 2003

...LATE AUTUMN RETURNS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS GETTING READY TO SWING EASTWARD TO THE COAST AND
WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM
THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY.  WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND
45 MILES AN HOUR LATER THIS EVENING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES IMMEDIATELY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANYONE PLANNING TO BE OUT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MUCH
COLDER...WETTER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.  DRIVING WILL BECOME MORE
HAZARDOUS AS THE ROADS BECOME WET AND THE WIND GUSTS ARRIVE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND
THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ATLANTIC COAST.  MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE SHARPLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SZATKOWSKI