Flash Flood Warning 289, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
405 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003

RAIN AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DECREASING
THIS MORNING. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY HELP FAST WINDS /50 KNOTS AT 5 KFT/ TO BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE, SO CONCUR WITH SPC ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT.

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO GUST OVER 40 MPH DUE TO THE FAST
WINDS ALOFT AND RAPID PRESSURE CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AIR
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND TRAJECTORY APPROPRIATE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
GIVE A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOS
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON DRASTIC CHANGES
EXPECTED.

.PBZ...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

BCR/LG

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-121030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
538 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THERE MAY BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. TORNADOES MAY EVEN FORM.

LATE TONIGHT THERE CAN STILL BE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ON THURSDAY...THERE CAN ALSO BE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

COLD WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO SPAWN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...1 INCH OR SO...IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE
CHESTNUT RIDGE AND LAUREL HILL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-121600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
438 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003

A SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA, EAST CENTRAL OHIO, AND WESTERN MARYLAND THIS MORNING.
SOME WATER MAY POND IN LOW LYING AREAS, AND WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR.

THE STEASDY RAIN SHOULD END BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE UPPER MID WEST STATES BY THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND MAY GUST TO
45 MPH TONIGHT INTO THUSDAY.  THE HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD BE ALONG
NORTHWEST PENNYLVANIA AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY
THUSDAY MORNING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS, AND THE
SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PITTSBURGH.  THE REST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE
A LIGHT COATING OR LESS.

BE PREPARED FOR THIS DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  WIND CHILLS
THUSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS.  ALSO, YOU MAY WANT TO SECURE ANY
LOOSE ITEMS THAT COULD BLOW AWAY IN THE STRONG WINDS OF TONIGHT AND
THUSDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

REHAK

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-121700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
445 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYS THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIME THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS GUSTS MAY GO OVER 60 MPH. THERE IS EVEN A
RISK THAT TORNADOES MAY FORM.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WITH THESE
STORMS MAY GO OVER 60 MPH AND TORNADOES MAY EVEN FORM.

THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVATED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LISTEN FOR UPDATES.

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-121600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
508 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003

...RAIN...WIND...COLD...AND A LITTLE SNOW...

A SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA, EAST CENTRAL OHIO, AND WESTERN MARYLAND THIS MORNING.
SOME WATER MAY POND IN LOW LYING AREAS, AND WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR.

THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD END BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE UPPER MID WEST STATES BY THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND MAY GUST TO
45 MPH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD BE ALONG
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS, AND THE
SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PITTSBURGH.  THE REST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY RECEIVE
A LIGHT COATING OR LESS.

BE PREPARED FOR THIS DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  WIND CHILLS
THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS.  ALSO, YOU MAY WANT TO SECURE ANY
LOOSE ITEMS THAT COULD BLOW AWAY IN THE STRONG WINDS OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

REHAK