Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Paducah, KY

April 25, 2003Calloway County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 25, 2003, 9:28 AM CDT for Calloway County, Kentucky. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 25, 2003, 9:28 AM CDT (14:28 UTC)
Expired: Apr 25, 2003, 10:15 AM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Calloway County, KY

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -232 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 656 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 279 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 296 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

694 
WUUS53 KPAH 251428
SVRPAH
KYC035-251515-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
928 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 928 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MURRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 30 MPH.

LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE 
COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3650 8849 3676 8838 3676 8812 3672 8810
          3667 8813 3650 8827

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 25, 3:20 AM CDT, 6 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 25, 3:20 AM CDT, 6 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER SW MISSOURI WITH
COVERAGE IN A DIURNAL WANE. MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR FORECAST
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER AND SFC LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAKING BOTH
ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. SO...FOR TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN
FAIRLY HIGH POPS...BUT BACK DOWN FROM CATEGORICAL...SINCE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE EXISTS TO OUR WEST. WILL USE LIKELY
TERMINOLOGY AND GO WITH POPS 60-70 PERCENT. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
FLARE UP AGAIN...AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EAST 1/2 OF
THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK PER DAY 1 FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
WILL MAINTAIN EVENING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA...THEN GO WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT ON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL FORECAST TO
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS GOING DRY FORECAST ON TRACK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS OUTPUT TRENDING AWAY FROM CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS SETS UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH...RATHER THAN PUSHING IT SOUTH TOWARD OUR FA SUCH AS THE ETA
SUGGESTS...LATE MONDAY. NEW 00 UTC CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE GFS TREND
KEEPING QPF...FRONTAL POSITION NORTH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS
TIL WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF FWC/MAV AND ETA12 TEMPS FOR MAX/MIN
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT LOCAL FORECAST VALUES LINE
UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GUIDANCE.

.PAH...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 25, 4:10 AM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
410 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM EVANSVILLE INDIANA...TO HARRISBURG ILLINOIS TO
MAYFIELD KENTUCKY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ARE BOTH FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA TODAY. THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AGAIN
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY FOR WESTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 24, 10:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Fulton, Hickman	26 min
Apr 25, 12:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Lyon	20 min
Apr 25, 3:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	McCracken	44 min
Apr 25, 4:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Marshall	33 min
Apr 25, 4:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Marshall	29 min
Apr 25, 4:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Lyon	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.