Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE RESULTING IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON BEST CHANCE
AND BEST TIME PERIODS FOR PCPN...HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THEME OF ALL
MODELS IS TO CONTINUE THE EFFECTS OF THE LONG WAVE TROF IN OUR VCNTY
AND THAT IS A CONTINUED SLGT CHC-CHC CAT PCPN THRU MID WEEK. AFTER
THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR SUGGESTION THAT
THE TROF AXIS WL BE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST...EVEN IF THE RIDGE
DOESNT FULLY BUILD IN...TO PROVIDE A DRY WX FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST MRF HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROF INDUCED WAVE DEVELOPING A SMALL CHC PCPN ON DAY7...HOWEVER...
AGREE WITH ILX THAT BY AND LARGE THE TROF WL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST AND
THE MOISTURE PROFILE WL BE SCANT ENOUGH THAT PCPN CHC IS LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE FOR NOW...AND AWAIT A LTL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY ON THE
MATTER.

WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MAV MOS NOS ESP
TUE-WED...THOUGH NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFERENCE NOTED AMONGST
THEM...TAPERING TO NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE DRIER EXTENDED.

.PAH...NONE.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-040945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE QUAD STATE...FROM...CHICAGO THROUGH...ST LOUIS
TO...SPRINGFIELD MO. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRAVEL EAST INTO LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE QUAD STATE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY...CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
TODAY...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

KH

ILZ075>078-080>094-KYZ001>014-MOZ076-086-087-100-109>112-114-040100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
231 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
WAYNE...BUTLER...BOLLINGER...STODDARD...NEW MADRID...PERRY...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...SCOTT...AND MISSISSIPPI.

IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
PERRY...JEFFERSON...WAYNE...EDWARDS...WABASH...JACKSON...
FRANKLIN...HAMILTON...WHITE...WILLIAMSON...SALINE...GALLATIN...
UNION...JOHNSON...POPE...HARDIN...ALEXANDER...PULASKI...AND
MASSAC.

IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
BALLARD...CARLISLE...HICKMAN...FULTON...MCCRACKEN...GRAVES...
LIVINGSTON...MARSHALL...CALLOWAY...CRITTENDEN...LYON...CALDWELL...
UNION...AND TRIGG.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE GIRARDEAU...POPLAR BLUFF...
CARBONDALE...MOUNT VERNON...PADUCAH...AND MAYFIELD.