Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

UNUSUALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

EARLY MORNING MCS THAT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS ERN MISSOURI TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED PARTS OF THE AREA. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT TRIGGERED THE
MCS...VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS
RESULTED IN FULL SUNSHINE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND
MINUS 8. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AT 18Z APPEARS TO BE ALONG
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS EAST ALONG I-70. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATELY
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO SRN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY SW INDIANA.

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BECOME A HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR
REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT WILL INCREASE AS THE MAIN 500 MB
SHORTWAVE CROSSES MISSOURI. RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY
SW INDIANA/WRN KENTUCKY/SE MISSOURI...COULD SLOW RUNOFF. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED IN ZONES AND UPDATED HWO.

ON SATURDAY...ETA/GFS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND REDEVELOP IT OVER NW MISSOURI. ETA BRINGS THIS
BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING IT.
THE RESULT IS NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHER THAN
MESOSCALE COLD POOLS. THE GFS SOLUTION OF BRINGING A SURFACE WAVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY
PREVIOUS RUNS OR OTHER MODELS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ETA/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES
OVER THE PLAINS. ETA/GFS DEVELOP A WARM FRONT EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH A MODERATELY STRONG AND COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS TAKE THE PLAINS
SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. PLAN TO
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON MCS ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER AVN MOS GUIDANCE.

.PAH...NONE.

MY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST INDIANA.  GIVEN
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST...AND
WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNSET.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF ONE OR MORE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...IF THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP AS FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
ON SATURDAY...BUT THE MOST FAVORED AREAS AND TIMES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM STORM COMPLEXES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG WIND FIELDS FORECAST FOR THE REGION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD CURRENTLY IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
ANY TIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

DRS

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