Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

STANDING FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NRN 1/3-1/2 OF PAH FORECAST AREA...AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER ERN MO AND SWRN IL /STL VCNTY/
TAPPING INTO SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH
OF 50H S/WV INTO COOLER MID LEVEL /700 MB/ TEMPS AND HIGHER THETA-E
AIR OVER IL/IN.

ADJUSTED GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE RAPID
ONSET OF CONVECTION IN THE PAH FORECAST AREA TODAY. I AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN OVER SRN IL
THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES THE INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR S OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHILE TAPPING INTO S/WVS ROTATING AROUND THE
NERN MN CLOSED LOW. THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THESE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENHANCING THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DISCUSSION SUGGESTS MCSS AS A POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...I AM CONTINUING
TO EMPHASIS THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE DAY...WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS MAX TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...KEPT NEAR 90 MAXES TODAY...AS
CLOUD COVER BREAK FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER IN TIME FOR MAX HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON. I AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE 12KM ETA MODEL SURFACE TEMPS AS
INITIAL GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXTENDED...I WAS COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME FOR CONSISTENCY
SAKE. DAY CREW MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS DECISION FOR LATER FORECAST
PACKAGES.

.PAH...NONE.

SMITH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY WORKING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

A FEW OF THE STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

HOWEVER...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
BACK ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
GREATEST HAZARDS.

OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SMITH

MOZ100-011400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
759 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...HEAVY RAIN FALLS ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY MISSOURI...

SINCE 645 AM...NEARLY ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY...FROM COLDWATER AND
GREENVILLE...EASTWARD TO SHOOK AND LOWNDES.

FOR TRAVELERS DRIVING ON OR NEAR ROUTE 34 NEAR CLUBB...BE WATCHFUL
FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS THROUGH 9 AM.

PERSONS LIVING IN EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY MISSOURI SHOULD BE WATCHFUL
FOR SHARP RISES IN SMALL CREEKS AND DITCHES. AVOID TRYING TO CROSS
THESE WATER COURSES...AS THE CURRENT MAY BE SWIFT AND UNPREDICTABLE.

SMITH