Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
150 AM SUN APR 6 2003

PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AND SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND THEN CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES (FREEZE POTENTIAL) IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS UP TODAY WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY (K/SHOWALTER)
LOOKS TO BE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL INDICATE BETTER
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH TOWARD TN.

THE SEVERE CHANCE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA...AND A SURFACE LOW SWEEPS
EASTWARD ALONG IT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT PATH
OF THE LOW...BUT MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN KY/TN BORDER. AVN K INDEX PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SHOWALTER INDICES 0 TO -3. THIS...WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...WILL MEAN MORE OF AN ELEVATED HAIL THREAT OVER MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE...ESP WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINING SO COOL. HOWEVER...IF THE WARM FRONT/LOW MOVE FURTHER
NORTH INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY...THE THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FULL REALM OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.  WILL
GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE IT MOVE
OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA BY MORNING.

WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY GETTING THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES.  HOWEVER...BY MONDAY
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY IN ALL ZONES.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A HIGHLY SHEARED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY BE SAVING
GRACE...ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND...IN PREVENTING WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS WED MORNING. H50 TROF SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON...SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUN BY THEN...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCE OF FROST/FREEZE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU...ESP SE MO/SRN IL AND SW IN...AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE AREA AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR. STILL MAY BE CLOUD/WIND
RADIATION INHIBITORS OVER KY.

.PAH...NONE.

MEFFERT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-070900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE..TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM PERRYVILLE MISSOURI...THROUGH CARBONDALE ILLINOIS...AND
EVANSVILLE INDIANA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. THIS WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FREEZE OR FROST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THIS TIME FRAME. MONITOR THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE FROST...FREEZE EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

KH