Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

SIGNIFICANT WX EPISODE SLATED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE PAH FORECAST AREA. LATE MORNING SPC DISCUSSION SUGGESTED THAT
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO
THE CWA...WITH A TRANSITION TO A SQUALL LINE FURTHER TO THE EAST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH RISK COVERAGE TODAY...I
HAVE TO DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN EACH
ZONE GROUP...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SATELLITE PICTURES...GOES/RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND HIGH THETA-E AIR
POISED ACROSS WRN KY. THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF HIGH THETAE
AIR...SO MAIN FACTOR FOR INSTABILITY WILL SHARPER LAPSE RATES AND
WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING WITH JET MAX ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH IN
THE WRN U.S.

EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY OUT OF THE CWA AFTER
06-08Z...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE AND
DEEPEN IN NWLY FLOW...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. I DECIDED TO LEAVE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

.PAH...NONE.

SMITH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-111000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1211 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 300 AM. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF WHICH WILL
PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. MEANWHILE...FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PULSE UP AND BECOME
SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN THREATS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE OVER...WITH THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT...PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK...MAINLY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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