Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG ERN CORRIDOR
PAH FA. THIS BOUNDARY WL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
INTERIM...UNTIL MUCH ADVERTISED PLAINS SHORT WAVE INITIATES ITS
RETURN NWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WL HELP DESTABILIZE PAH FA
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSRA...AND PER
SWODY1...SLGT RISK OF SVR TODAY. AND WHILE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY REACH
DOORSTEP OF PAH FA EARLY TODAY...BELIEVE BETTER CHANCE OF SVR WL BE IN
SOUPED UP/DESTABILIZED PM/EVENING HOURS. STILL BEST ATMOSPHERICS WL
BE TO OUR WEST...CLOSER TO VCNTY OF LOW AND EJECTING WAVE.

THE CHANCE FOR WARM SECTOR SHRA/TSRA WL CONTINUE BASICALLY THROUGH
SAT...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE FOR LOW CHC VERSUS SLGT
CHC AREAS...BASED ON LATEST MODEL SUGGESTIONS. SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU SAT NIGHT AND SHOULD END PCPN BY EARLY SUN...WITH ALSO PERHAPS
A LTL HIGHER POP ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.

WL AWAIT NEW GUIDANCE BUT ANTICIPATE A LTL COOLER/DRIER WX BEHIND
FROPA TO START NEXT WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING TO A STORMY PATTERN WED.

.PAH...NONE.

DH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THEN AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS...INCLUDING STRONG ONES...WILL BE WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER TO START THE WORKWEEK...A
STORMIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SET UP AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY...WHEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS REINTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

KYZ001>013-016-017-021-022-MOZ100-107>112-114-081645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY UNTIL 400 PM...

AT 1030 AM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FROM JUST WEST OF POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI...
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VAN BUREN MISSOURI...ONWARD TO PADUCAH AND
MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY...SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AS THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH YOUR AREA.

AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE
RATHER QUICKLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE SHELTER INDOORS.

SMITH