Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Paducah, KY

May 6, 2003Ripley County, Missouri

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 6, 2003, 12:45 AM CDT for Ripley County, Missouri. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 6, 2003, 12:45 AM CDT (05:45 UTC)
Expired: May 6, 2003, 1:45 AM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ripley County, MO

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1533 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 824 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 91 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 202 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.3
Supercell composite: 4.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 5, 3:15 PM CDT, 9 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 5, 3:15 PM CDT, 9 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AND SEVERE WEATHER.

MANY PARAMETERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PACKAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WEAK FRONT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS STORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS REACH
OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
WITH PART OF THE AREA IN MODERATE RISK.

FOLLOWING THE ETA/MESOETA FOR THE MOST PART AND ALL MODELS HAVE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME TIMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS. ONE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE NEXT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN ON
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FLOODING...BUT AFTER CONSULTING WITH
HYDROLOGIST...FEEL THAT WE HAVE HAD A DAY TO DAY OUT AND THE HIGHEST
QPF IS FORECAST TO OUR NORTH. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

PS

Hazardous weather outlook, May 5, 3:37 PM CDT, 9 hours 8 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
337 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE GREATEST RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW MADRID MISSOURI...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO
KENTUCKY LINE. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS
AREA...WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO OF CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 5, 6:55 PM CDT, 5 hours 50 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 6, 11:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jefferson	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.