Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Paducah, KY

000 
WGUS73 KPAH 280717
FFSPAH
ILC165-199-280800-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
114 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WILLIAMSON AND SALINE COUNTIES IN 
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

RECENT REPORTS FROM SHERIFF DEPARTMENTS IN SALINE AND WILLIAMSON 
COUNTIES INDICATED NO WATER PROBLEMS...AND RADAR INDICATED THAT RAIN 
WAS ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

YORK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CST THU NOV 27 2003

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS THANKSGIVING FORECAST REMAINS THE TIMING OF
RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TRENDS FRIDAY.

LATEST WEATHER MAPS INDICATE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT
HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...WEST KENTUCKY...AND WEST
TENNESSEE. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A
COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HEADING EAST INTO MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS. A MOSAIC OF REGIONAL 88D/S SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

WHILE MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY WERE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN
WEST KENTUCKY...LAST NIGHT/S RUNS SHIFTED EVERYTHING MUCH FURTHER
NORTH. THIS MORNING...THE 12Z ETA/GFS/NGM RUNS WERE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT. AS A RESULT...SHORT-TERM CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODELS HAS REBOUNDED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVERHEAD...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI...COMPLIMENTS OF FAVORABLE
700-500MB LAPSE RATES...SHOWALTER AND K INDICES. ALL THESE VALUES
WOULD SUGGEST A DECREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH STRATIFORM WORDING
INSTEAD. MODELS INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MAY TAKE THE ENTIRE NIGHT TO EXIT EAST
OF THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY OF WEST KENTUCKY.

WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PANELS OF BOTH 925 AND 850 MB DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS INDICATE THE INTRUSION OF PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ETA HAS REALLY COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON THIS...BUT THE GFS IS STILL A
TAD BIT MORE MOIST. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS
WHERE EVANSVILLE IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY LONG...WHILE
POPLAR BLUFF EXPERIENCES A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...TOUCHING OFF
PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT
THE SURFACE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST EARLIER THAN
THE GFS AND CANADIAN. FOR NOW...WILL RELY ON THE GFS DEPICTION...
WHICH SHOWS THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AROUND THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO DAY 7.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN
THE FWC AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE. WHERE A DIFFERENCE DOES EXIST...
GENERALLY RELIED ON THE COOLER MAV OR A BLEND OF THE TWO. IN THE
EXTENDED...THE LATEST 00Z MEX GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS TOO COOL GIVEN
850MB TEMPERATURE AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS FORECASTS. THEREFORE...
WILL HEDGE ABOVE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

PRESLEY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-281100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 PM CST THU NOV 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY...PRIMARILY IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINS. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.