Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Paducah, KY

000 
WGUS73 KPAH 171008
FFSPAH
KYC083-145-171100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
508 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM FOR
MCCRACKEN AND GRAVES COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 500 AM...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE HEAVY RAIN
RESPONSIBLE FOR RISING WATER IN MCCRACKEN AND GRAVES COUNTIES...HAS
MOVE OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH WATER IS STILL LIKELY
TO RUNOFF FROM CREEKS...STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MAYFIELD AREA
IN GRAVES COUNTY...AND IN THE HENDRON AREA OF MCCRACKEN COUNTY...
ALONG CHAMPION CREEK AT OLD MAYFIELD AND HOUSER ROADS.

RAIN WAS INCREASING OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 600 AM OR 700 AM. THEN RAIN WILL
RETURN...WHICH MAY SERVE TO SLOW RECEDING WATER LEVELS...OR EVEN
BRING BACK THE RISK OF SOME FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
150 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

WVAPOR AND RUC SHOW CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER EAST OKLAHOMA. A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF
THE PAH FA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN APPEARS TO BE FALLING AT A
STEADY ENOUGH RATE TO PRECLUDE FLASH FLOODING. MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
PROBLEMS IN OUR WARNING AREA. AND MANY POINTS ON AREA RIVERS IN
FLOOD. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT PROBLEMS ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS
WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SE TODAY TOWARD
LOUISIANA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DRIFTS INTO EAST
ARKANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY. DEFORMATION TYPE RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTM
SHIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH TIME. THUS...CATEGORICAL
POPS ALL AREAS TODAY. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF POPS TONIGHT...AS THE
UPPER LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY...AND SFC LOW BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION.
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
STILL BE TO OUR NW. AM CONCERNED WITH THE FACT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WEAK INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WHETHER THIS PANS
OUT OR NOT IS SOMEWHAT MUTED BY THE FACT THAT BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. H7 THERMAL RIDGE
STILL LINED UP OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LITTLE CAPPING. SO
ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND LINGER IT INTO
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING SETS IN.

NO CHANGES TO DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE...USED A BLEND
OF FWC/MAV AND ETA12 NUMBERS.

.PAH...NONE.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO
CLINTON KENTUCKY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE AREA...NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE QUAD
STATE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE RAINS
EARLY THIS WEEKEND MAY AGGRAVATE AND PROLONG THE ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MEFFERT