Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

LARGE...WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PRES AREA CONTINUED TO CHURN OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT MOVED SLOWLY TO THE ESE. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPED FROM THE CONVECTION AND HELPED TO KICK
OFF MORE TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER JET WAS PUNCHING INTO WRN KY HELPING TO ENHANCE TSTMS IN A SVR
WATCH AREA. HAIL AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. ALL THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END...EVEN IN THE EAST BY AROUND
07Z SAT. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY TAKE MOST
OF SAT TO CLEAR. WEAK RIDGING WILL RESULT IN A REPRIEVE IN THE WET
WEATHER FOR SUN AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH AOA SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED.

MIDWEEK...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL DRAP ITSELF NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MO. WHILE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THEM...THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS IMPULSES IN THE
UPPER FLOW STARTING WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH DEPARTS. THE
BELIEF IS THAT THE SHW/TSTM THREAT WILL BE A LITTLE SOONER ON WED
THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...THUS A CHANGE WAS MADE. DAY6 AND DAY7 APPEAR
TO BE RATHER SOGGY AS SRLY SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER GULF MOISTURE
IN.

USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MESOETA TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM.

.PAH...NONE.

DB

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-261000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
105 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
AGAIN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

MEFFERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1245 PM    CENTRAL CITY              KY   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/25/03   MUHLENBERG                     REPORTED BY DISPATCH

ILZ092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ110>112-114-252000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
110 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
SAME AREA AND ENCOUNTER VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS COMBINATION OF
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY. SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...WIND PATTERNS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING
STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. THOUGH
MOST OF THESE FUNNELS WILL STAY ALOFT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED OVER MISSISSIPPI COUNTY JUST
BEFORE 100 PM. THIS FUNNEL IS NO LONGER VISIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MEFFERT

ILZ092-093-KYZ001>006-MOZ110>112-114-252130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME
WESTERN KENTUCKY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE SAME AREA AND
ENCOUNTER VERY UNSTABLE AIR. THIS COMBINATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IN ADDITION...WIND PATTERNS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING
STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. THOUGH
MOST OF THESE FUNNELS SHOULD STAY ALOFT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...ALONG WITH STORM SPOTTERS IN THE
FIELD...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MEFFERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    1S SANDUSKY               IL   WIND DAMAGE
04/25/03   ALEXANDER                      TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          ILLINOIS STATE POLICE

0304 PM    PULASKI CITY              IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/25/03   PULASKI                        REPORTED BY PULASKI
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE