Severe Thunderstorm Warning 720, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
156 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUN CWA THRU FRI.
HOWEVER..OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS CONVECTION
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NWD WITHIN MOISTURE RETURN AXIS ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR IN NCENT TX. THIS CONVECTION SHUD CONT TO DEVLP NWD INTO
SRN OK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SYSTEM OUT WEST TONITE.  CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LATE
SHOW ACROSS THE OUN CWA.  BAND 10 WV IMAGERY FROM RAMSDIS INDICATES
LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE MOIST
AXIS..WITH NEXT ROUND OF LIFT JUST NOW EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS IN
ERN CO/NM.  INITIATION SHUD BE LATE AND QUITE FAR WEST.  EWD
PROGRESS SHUD BE FARILY SLOW.  NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT SVR
POTENTIAL WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. VICI PROFILER CURRENTLY HAS AN
ANEMIC SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 6KTS.  DESPITE RATHER DECENT
INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO OVERNITE WITH A GOOD
LLJ..DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT FOR
A NARROW ZONE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.  A MUCH BIGGER THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING FROM LATER TONITE AND ESP THUR INTO
EARLY FRI.  FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE HIGHEST RISK
IS ATTM..BUT AN INITIAL GUESS WUD POINT TO LOCALES ALONG AND SE OF
THE I44 CORRIDOR WHERE LONGER PERIOD OF LIFT/SLOWING BOUNDARY/COPIUS
MOISTURE AND BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE TO FOCUS A LONGER
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
ECHOES.  IT HAS BEEN ONLY A LITTLE OVER A WEEK SINCE WIDESPREAD 4-7
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA..AND HYDROLOGIC SITUATION WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND EXACT THREAT AREA ATTM TO ISSUE A WATCH..BUT EVENING OR NIGHT
SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER THIS WHEN DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW DETAILS WILL PLAY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.  GFS
IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG SECONDARY FRONT SAT/SUN..BUT WE
HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS OF THIS IS CORRECT AND ARE DISCOUNTING THIS SOLN
MORE IN FAVOR OF ETA/CANADIAN/UKMET WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE
UPPER LOW EWD.  WILL KEEP POPS GOING WITH UPPER LOW NEARBY AND DRY
THINGS OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS.
 MILLER

OKC  72 80 62 75 / 20  + 70 50
HBR  71 78 60 73 / 40  + 80 40
SPS  72 84 61 75 / 30 70 80 50
GAG  60 70 51 73 / 80 70 40 20
PNC  72 79 58 74 / 30  + 80 40
DUA  73 85 66 76 / 20 60 90 80

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO A
SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SEYMOUR TEXAS...TO HOBART...TO WATONGA...TO ENID AND
MEDFORD.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BY
10 PM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
70 MPH...WHICH COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLY TO
MOBILE HOMES. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE MAY ALSO CAUSE DAMAGE
TO VEGETATION AND VEHICLES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO IMPLEMENT SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
LINEAR COMPLEX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS COMPLEX WILL THEN MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA. SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL REQUIRE EXTRA CAUTION BY BOATERS ON AREA
LAKES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ORIENTATION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...TRAINING ECHOES ARE
LIKELY. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST SOIL FROM LAST WEEKS HEAVY
RAINFALL...RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

EVEN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RESIDUAL MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

MAXWELL

OKZ004-009-102145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF
LAVERNE TO 29 MILES WEST OF SHATTUCK AT 434 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WR

OKZ021-110100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
749 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF ERICK AT 749 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

WR

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    ERICK                     OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
09/10/03   BECKHAM                        ESTIMATED BY PUBLIC

KT