Severe Thunderstorm Warning 707, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
1104 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE RESULTED IN AN ADJUSTMENT OF AFTERNOON
POPS AND MAX TEMPS OVER THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO NEAR
A LINE FROM NEWKIRK...TO MEDFORD...AND IS STILL MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO INITIATE NEW TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MAX TEMPS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD ABOUT 5 TO 8
DEGREES.

UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS HAS SUPPORTED A RATHER COOL AND MOIST
700-500 MB LAYER OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE HALF OF THE AREA. AIRMASS
WILL ADVECT WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY ALSO ALLOW THE CAPPING
INVERSION TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA LATER TODAY.

JAMES

-------------------------
344 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

WEAK FRONT ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD INTO NRN
SECS OF THE FA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE VERY HOT AGAIN
THIS AFTN AND WITH ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
INCLUDE SOME LO POPS IN THE NORTH TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SOUTH. SOME SCT TSTSM DEVELOPED IN THE SE THURSDAY
AFTN AND WITH ELY WAVE PROGRESSING ACRS TX BENEATH THE UPR HIGH WILL
ALSO INCLUDE SOM LO POPS FOR SRN SECS THIS AFTN. WITH FNTL BNDRY
LINGERING IN THE VCNTY OF NRN OK INTO SAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LO
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME. NEW GFS SHOWS A SIG S/W MOVING THROUGH THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUE AND DRIVING COLD FRONT SWD INTO
THE FA. WILL INTRO CHC CAT POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT OVER ABOUT THE NWRN
THIRD OF THE FA AND THEN SPREAD CHCS SEWD TUESDAY. WILL BE CAUTIOUS
WITH THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS
EVIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

OKC  100   73   99   72  / 20   20   10   10
HBR  102   72  101   71  / 10   10   10   10
SPS  102   74  102   73  / 20   20   20   10
GAG  101   67  100   68  / 10   20   10   10
PNC  103   73  100   73  / 30   30   20   20
DUA  101   74   99   74  / 20   20   10   10

FORECAST ID = 02

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER
AREA OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SITUATED NEAR A LINE FROM PERRY...TO ENID...TO
ALVA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS TEXAS.

LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THESE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUG 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT WILL REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE IN MANY AREAS. PRECAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED TO AVOID
HEAT RELATED HEALTH PROBLEMS. IF YOU NEED TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID ANY
PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITY AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS. DRINK PLENTY
OF WATER...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO DIRECT SUN...AND DRESS IN
LOOSE FITTING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING. PROTECT YOUR PETS BY MAKING
SURE THEY HAVE PLENTY OF SHADE AND COOL WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS HOT OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES STILL MAY APPROACH DANGEROUS
LEVELS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

JAMES

OKZ048-052-222030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
314 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ATOKA COUNTY...MOVING WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES