Severe Thunderstorm Warning 690, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
313 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2003

MCS ONGOING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO SAG
S OR SSE THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LAY OUT HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
PROJECTED PATH FOR TODAY. MAY SEE SOME WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY
LATE MORNING... AND THEN SOME REINTENSIFICATION BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
HOWEVER... STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TRACKED BY THEN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR LATE TODAY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER TODAY DUE TO PCPN AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW POPS IN OVER MAINLY
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. GFS INDICATING SOME WEAK WAVES MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA... ALTHOUGH THESE FEATURES ARE HARDER TO FIND IN THE
ETA. IN THE LONGER TERM... MAINTAINING LOW POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST...AND INTO OUR AREA... BY MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BELIEVE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WE SAW THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS... ESPECIALLY OVER SW OK AND WRN NTX... WILL
DEPART FOR A LITTLE WHILE ANYWAY. MCS TODAY WILL RESULT IN LOWER
TEMPS... WHILE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MUCH OF THE WEEK... WILL SEE
MORE OF AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS... WITH APPROACH OF RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH.

PRELIM NMBRS... WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS.

OKC   93   71   96   71  / 40   10   10   20
HBR   90   71   97   71  / 70   10   10   10
SPS   92   73   98   73  / 60   20    5   10
GAG   90   68   97   68  / 60   10   10   10
PNC   92   69   94   70  / 30   10   20   20
DUA   96   73   95   73  / 30   10   20   20

FORECAST ID = 32

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT FOR THE
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO...AND
POSSIBLY THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. AS THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY GRAZING THE
WESTERN ONE THIRD OF OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THEM AS THEY INITIALLY
ENTER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHATS
BEEN EXPERIENCED THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUG 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AGAIN WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA.

FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MAY THEN CONTINUE OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE HEAT INDICES TO NEAR OR
ABOVE THE DANGER LEVEL IN MANY AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECAUTIONS TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACTS OF
HEAT STRESS SHOULD CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OCCURS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

JAMES

OKZ009-014-090745-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS AND ROGER MILLS
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF ROLL AT 227 AM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.