Severe Thunderstorm Warning 688, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
137 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR TULSA WITH WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD WICHITA FALLS. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
FROM SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD TO A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHERE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALSO LIES. AIRMASS BEHIND THE
OKLAHOMA COLD FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS IN PART TO HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WRAPPING WESTWARD
BEHIND THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...
SURFACE TROUGH...AND EVEN A LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE OVER THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...LIKELY REACHING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEFORE 12Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL HOWEVER...
RESULTING IN FRONTOLYSIS.

CONTINUED NEAR PROXIMITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT. HAVE PLACED
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE GREATER RUN-TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF
WHICH ALLOWS THE ROCKIES RIDGE TO HAVE A LARGER INFLUENCE ON THE
AREA COMPARED TO THE GFS. IF THE GFS SOLUTION WAS TO BE
FOLLOWED...LOW POPS WOULD BE NEEDED BY THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH AND WEST. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET
AND CANADIAN...AND THE 12Z VERSION OF THE GFS...ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF. BY DAY 7 (TUES)...THE ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS FORMING OVER KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS.

OKC   75   97   72   96  /  5    5   10    0
HBR   73   99   71   98  / 20    5   10    0
SPS   75  101   74  101  / 20    5   10    0
GAG   69   95   66   95  /  5    5   10    0
PNC   73   94   71   94  / 20    5   10    0
DUA   76   98   74   99  / 20    5   10    0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
JAMES

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE... A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE... AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...LOCATED NEAR A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS... ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...5 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WHICH WILL CREATE
ENHANCED WILDFIRE DANGERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
APPRECIABLE RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CJS

OKZ045-052155-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF ADDINGTON AT 445
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

...SPEG.

OKZ009-052200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTH OF GAGE AT 448 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    COMANCHE                  OK   LIGHTNING
08/05/03   STEPHENS                       LIGHTNING CAUSED HOUSE
                                          FIRE

TY

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