Severe Thunderstorm Warning 674, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
355 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY EAST OF
CWA...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW WILL AID IN SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID
MORNING. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BOUNDARIES
AND HEATING...WITH FAVORED AREA FROM WESTERN TO SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR
WHAT APPEARS TO BE WASHING STATIONARY FRONT.

POST-MIDNIGHT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH DAYTIME PERIODS MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECASTED S/WV TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE
NEVADA AREA. WILL BUMP POPS UP FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
LOWER TEMPS A BIT FOR MONDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST THERMAL RIBBON
SETS UP...IT COULD BE ANOTHER NO-SHOW FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. SOME LINGERING RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...BUT LOOK FOR MAIN SHOW MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGD TO
STRENGTHEN OVER SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MID-WEEK ON. DRY
FORECAST WITH WARMING TREND WILL GO UNCHANGED.

NUMBERS OUT SHORTLY.

FORECAST ID = 11

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...FROM NEAR
ARNETT TO THOMAS TO MUSTANG EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
A CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS DID NOT
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE THAT WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY AUG 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER DANGER...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER
MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.  DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL AGAIN
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 700
AM SUNDAY.

24

OKZ020-026-030900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LINCOLN AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF PAYNE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES.  STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF BOTH COUNTIES.  IN ADDITION... A
FEW STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN PAYNE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES MAY QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE.

CMS