Severe Thunderstorm Warning 665, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
915 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TEXT AND GRAPHIC FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  PROBABLY COULD HAVE RAISED POPS
FURTHER....  NOW EXPECT STORMS TO SLOWLY WITHER AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS.  NEVERTHELESS... UPSTREAM STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
ARRIVE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT.  PLAN TO ADJUST POPS
UPWARD AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

OTHERWISE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED.  POP REVISION WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

23 = CMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

MERGER OF WEAK COLD AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSRA OVERNIGHT...WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS COLORADO AND
WEST TEXAS COULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH...AND
THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA
UNTIL THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND FOR EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY.

LOW POPS APPEAR JUSTIFIED FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND FOR LESSER PORTIONS OF THE SAME AREAS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST...WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA.

OKC   70   92   70   96  / 20    5   20   20
HBR   69   92   68   97  / 20   20   20   10
SPS   71   96   71   97  / 20   20   20   10
GAG   64   90   64   98  / 20    5   20   10
PNC   68   92   68   96  /  5    5   20   20
DUA   73   97   72   95  / 20   20   20   20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
JAMES

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS
A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY
AFFECTING AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUL 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HIGH AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE
DANGER. REFER TO OUR FIRE DANGER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ALSO BE SEEN THIS WEEKEND...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO THE FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

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