Severe Thunderstorm Warning 635, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
850 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD AND IN AREAL COVERAGE
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS...AND INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. IF THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NORTHWARD TO THE KANSAS BORDER...BELIEVE THAT
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE KINEMATIC AND
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR AN EXPANSION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...EXCLUDING
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BE MORE
TOWARD THE SUBTROPICAL SIDE OF THE UPPER JET AXIS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER LIFT AVAILABLE TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION. HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO MENTION LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...AND THE ZONES WERE ALSO UPDATED TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

JAMES

------------------------
254 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTN. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
TO MOVE THRU PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT OF THE
MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND AFFECT THE AREA THRU THE DAY THURS. THE
BEST CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FA. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH COULD CAUSE LOWS TONIGHT TO BE
COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW CAUSES THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVE INTO THE FA AS AN MCS.
MODELS PROG THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES.

OKC   71   92   68   95  / 50   20   10   10
HBR   70   95   69   97  / 20   10   10   10
SPS   73   95   71   98  / 20   30   10   10
GAG   64   95   64   97  / 20   10   10   10
PNC   69   93   67   95  / 60   10   10   10
DUA   74   91   70   95  / 50   40   10   10

FORECAST ID = 25

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
748 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO OKARCHE TO CHANDLER.

TIMING...
FROM 8 PM THROUGH 4 AM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WILL BE MOST LIKELY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT...DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WILL ALLOW A FEW
OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
MOST LIKELY...BUT AS STORMS FIRST MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
THERE WILL BE LOWER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS UP TO
60 MPH. THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

AS THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARD. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FARTHER
SOUTH...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
METRO AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUL 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

JAMES

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