Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 601, NWS Norman, OK

June 12, 2003Wilbarger County, Texas

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 12, 2003, 1:13 AM CDT for Wilbarger County, Texas. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 12, 2003, 1:13 AM CDT (06:13 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2003, 2:00 AM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4834 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1070 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KOUN 120613
SVROKC
TXC487-120700-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
113 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 113 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CENTERED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAYBACK...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GRAYBACK

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IS LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3391 9946 3384 9921 3385 9896 3418 9896
          3413 9905

$$

11

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 11, 8:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 11, 8:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 28 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
845 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

MADE MODIFICATION TO GOING FORECAST TO HANDLE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF HEAVY RAIN...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 300 AM.

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BECOMING MORE AND MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO SPEED UP THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH...IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

DID ADJUST MIN TEMPS UP FOR TONIGHT AS DEW POINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. NO CHANGES
BEYOND TONIGHT.

OKC   73   89   71   88  /100   30   40   40
HBR   72   91   70   90  /100   20   30   30
SPS   73   92   72   91  /100   20   30   30
GAG   67   91   67   88  / 80   20   40   40
PNC   72   88   71   85  / 60   30   40   40
DUA   73   89   73   89  / 80   30   40   30

FORECAST ID = 11

------------------------------

332 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

WATCHING SEVERAL AREAS FOR POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO/SE
COLORADO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE TSRA ARE JUST BEGINNING DEVELOP
WITHIN THE STRETCHING DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AS LIFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA
EXPECT TSRA TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...A DRYLINE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH HI BASED CUMULUS
BEGINNING TO FORM. LEADING EDGE OF UPPER JET CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH INITIATION EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WX OVER OUR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES.

OTHER LESS NOTABLE BOUNDARIES INCLUDE WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTWARD TO OKLAHOMA
CITY. THESE AREAS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED.

DUE TO RECENT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...1HR/3HR FFG HAS LOWERED TO
NEAR 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OR RAIN TONIGHT EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DRYLINE...WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF NEAR FUTURE TRENDS SUGGEST A WATCH IS
NEEDED...ONE CAN BE ISSUED QUICKLY.

CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NORTH OF EVOLVING
SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO. ANY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AREA MAY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IMPACT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ON THE
MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC SCALE ACTING AS TRIGGERS. TOO DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY WITH MUCH PRECISION WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING BELIEVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER COLORADO AND THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THIS WILL PROLONG
THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYS 4-7.

.OUN...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
OKZ022>024...OKZ027>029...OKZ035...OKZ038>041...OKZ046.

TX...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 11, 4:10 PM CDT, 9 hours 3 minutes before

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
410 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LOCATIONS...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HOLLIS...TO ALTUS...TO WALTERS...TO HENRIETTA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
INCLUDES THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM
THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL... POSSIBLY BASEBALL
SIZED OR LARGER... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCES OF 70 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS... WITH THE LARGE HAIL THREAT DECREASING WITH
TIME. SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHILDRESS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...GENERATED BY
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW
ALONG THE RED RIVER. A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM EAST OF
AMARILLO...TO JUST WEST OF CHILDRESS...TO EAST OF MIDLAND. THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM
MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

THE CAP WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE DRY LINE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
PARTICULAR...THE AREA WHERE THESE TWO BOUNDARIES INTERSECT WILL BE A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. THIS
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED CAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 6000 TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODEST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL BE VERY LOW.

STORMS THAT FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER LINE OR LARGE CLUSTER BY LATE EVENING
AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AFTER DARK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE IS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

MAXWELL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 11, 11:04 PM CDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1102 PM    3 W ADA                   OK   .88 INCH HAIL
06/11/03   PONTOTOC                       REPORTED BY COUNTY EOC

1058 PM    1 SW WELLSTON             OK   .88 INCH HAIL
06/11/03   LINCOLN                        REPORTED BY COUNTY EOC

1100 PM    1 SE WELLSTON             OK   .88 INCH HAIL
06/11/03   LINCOLN                        REPORTED BY EOC

Local storm report, Jun 11, 11:11 PM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1103 PM    2 S ADA                   OK   73 MPH WIND GUST
06/11/03   PONTOTOC                       MEASURED BY PONTOTOC COUNTY
                                          EOC

1040 PM    4 NNE SULPHUR             OK   72 MPH WIND GUST
06/11/03   MURRAY                         MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET

Local storm report, Jun 11, 11:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1100 PM    2 NNE ADA                 OK   63 MPH WIND GUST
06/11/03   PONTOTOC                       MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET

Local storm report, Jun 11, 11:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1053 PM    6 N PINK                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   POTTAWATOMIE                   10 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

0752 PM    2 N BLAIR                 OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/11/03   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS
                                          FORECASTER.

Local storm report, Jun 11, 11:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1120 PM    5 WNW CALVIN              OK   63 MPH WIND GUST
06/11/03   HUGHES                         MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET

Special weather statement, Jun 12, 12:45 AM CDT, 28 minutes before

OKZ037>039-044-045-TXZ086-089-090-120600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER...CLAY...COMANCHE...
COTTON...JEFFERSON...STEPHENS...TILLMAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THROUGH 1 AM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST AT 45 MPH.

11

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Knox	59 min
Jun 11, 7:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Wilbarger	59 min
Jun 11, 7:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Wichita	61 min
Jun 12, 1:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor	20 min
Jun 12, 2:32 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer	43 min
Jun 12, 2:54 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	36 min
Jun 12, 5:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer	37 min
Jun 12, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer	47 min
Jun 12, 6:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.