Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Norman, OK

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OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HOLLIS... TO CORDELL... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO CHANDLER. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BETWEEN 7
PM AND 11 PM...AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZED HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AUTOMOBILES...AND VEGETATION.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...LIKELY BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS...AND MINERAL WELLS.
MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN
LUBBOCK...MIDLAND...AND ABILINE.

AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THIS TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STORM
MOTION WILL BE NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...
INCLUDING KNOX CITY...MUNDAY...BENJAMIN...CROWELL...SEYMOUR...AND
ARCHER CITY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF RISK AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE MODERATE RISK FOR
PARTS OF THESE AREAS IS FOR THE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY APR 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.  HOWEVER... BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY... THE PRIMARY
AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING... WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN.

JAMES