Severe Thunderstorm Warning 505, NWS Norman, OK

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OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUDNERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN... CENTRAL... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAVERNE... TO WATONGA...
TO NORMAN... TO LAKE TEXOMA.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING... AND INTO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM... WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LASTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON... AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES IN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CHILDRESS... TO NEAR
FORT WORTH. ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT... CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000.

WEAK INSTABILITY WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER... IT IS
BECOMING APPARENT THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL NO LONGER BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY EARLY
EVENING... GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND
MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS... ALONG WITH A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE ENDING BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... AND OVER
ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND OR NEXT WEEK COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING... SOME OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS COULD EXPERIENCE
FLOODING IF AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

 MILLER

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