Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS... MANY OF WHICH ARE SEVERE... HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  MUCH LESS
COVERAGE IS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.  THE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE RATHER LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... DUE TO THE NEARLY
STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM... AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE PROJECTED
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

DRY AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE LOWS CIRCULATION THIS EVENING.  THIS SHOULD BRING A TEMPORARY
END TO STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA... IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST
PATTERN.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A STRONG IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THOSE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
TOO... IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

THE SLUGGISH STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SLOWLY AND
AIMLESSLY AROUND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS UNTIL FINALLY
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORIES... AND WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY... AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A WEAKER SYSTEM ARRIVES
IN THE AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH... DUE TO UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  AT THIS TIME... IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS RESTRICTED TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THE GFS SUGGESTS ANOTHER MAJOR STORM ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  A QUICK WARMUP IS POSSIBLE ON DAY
7... OR MORE LIKELY ON DAY 8... AS THE MID-NEXT-WEEK STORM
APPROACHES.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS... COMPARED TO GUIDANCE... FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY... AND WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS IN THAT PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   52  65  46  66 /  70  60  40  20
HBR   47  66  42  64 /  30  30  20  20
SPS   51  70  46  67 /  20  40  10  20
GAG   43  59  38  53 /  40  30  30  40
PNC   54  63  45  62 /  90  70  70  50
DUA   56  69  50  69 /  70  70  40  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-172200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS ALL OF NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CHEYENNE...TO VERNON AND ARCHER CITY TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SMALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING
IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... IN THE VICINITY OF A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN AREA WITH HIGHER
INSTABILITIES. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS AT
LOW LEVELS OVER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER... SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR NORTH INTO THIS AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY MAR 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A DRYLINE MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE AREA...HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF OUR FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BEYOND
TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE MENTIONED DRYLINE
SURGES FURTHER EAST.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

CJS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
933 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0933 PM    GLENCOE                   OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/17/03   PAYNE                          REPORTED BY PAYNE COUNTY
                                          EM.

TY/JLP

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0933 PM    PINK                      OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/17/03   POTTAWATOMIE                   REPORTED BY PUBLIC

JLP

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0939 PM    RED ROCK                  OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/17/03   NOBLE                          REPORTED BY COOP OBSERVER

TJ/JLP

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

TIME (CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 PM    PINK                      OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/17/03   POTTAWATOMIE                   REPORTED BY PUBLIC

JLP/TJ