Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION TO SOME SEVERE SIZED HAIL OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN REALIZED. RAINFALL RATES...CONFIRMED BY BOTH RADAR AND
GAUGE MEASUREMENTS...EXCEEDED 3 INCHES PER HOUR. WE COULD SEE THIS
TYPE OF ACTIVITY LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY DEVELOPS ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL...PERSISTENCE
AND TRAINING WILL BE LIMITED.

SPEAKING OF ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...MAIN SHOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH/IN CONJUNCTION WITH MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SWODY1
FOR PERTINENT DETAILS CONCERNING MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISKS FOR
TODAY. ETA/MESO-ETA MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING ACTIVITY SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AS IT ALLOWS FOR MORE PROLIFIC
COLD-POOL SURGE. ALTHOUGH GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS...CURRENT FORECAST AND LATEST HPC FORECASTS ARE CLOSER TO
GFS SOLUTIONS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH APPEARS PRUDENT...BUT DUE TO
PROBLEM OF FINDING EXACT LOCATION FOR ONE AND DEPENDENCE ON CURRENT
ACTIVITY...WILL NOT ISSUE. DAY SHIFT CAN ANALYZE SITUATION AND ISSUE
IF NECESSARY.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY...AM A BIT
RELUCTANT TO ACCEPT OVERALL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING SIG S/WV TROF
CUTTING THROUGH RIDGE NEAR BAJA. ONCE SYSTEM IS INTO MORE RELIABLE
DATA NETWORK...WE WILL SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE IT.

WITH FOCUS ON NEAR TERM AND ONGOING WARNING OPERATIONS...LITTLE TIME
AVAILABLE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS AND PLAN ON MAKING LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES.

FCSTID = 11

OKC   79   59   72   56  /100   60   30   20
HBR   81   59   73   54  / 70   60   30   20
SPS   84   62   75   56  / 80   80   40   30
GAG   78   55   70   49  / 70   40   20   20
PNC   74   56   72   53  /100   30   20   10
DUA   81   64   75   58  / 80   80   60   30

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS. DEPENDING ON HOW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THERE COULD BE AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS DURING
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TIMES.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH...STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING
ACTIVITY WOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM. AT THE SAME TIME...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE A
FOCUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY
WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK. A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PART OF OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

11

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
612 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0606 AM    2 S PIEDMONT              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   CANADIAN                       AT NORTHWEST EXPRESSWAY AND
                                          HIGHWAY 4. REPORTED BY OKC
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGER.

...SPEG.

OKZ007-008-013-241145-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT...KAY AND NOBLE
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LAMONT AT 627 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

PEOPLE IN GRANT...KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OKZ005-006-241215-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA AND WOODS COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
AMORITA TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF AVARD AT 656 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN ALFALFA AND WOODS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ALVA...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OKZ007-008-011>013-017>020-241330-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE...GARFIELD...GRANT...
KAY...KINGFISHER...LOGAN...MAJOR...NOBLE AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
CHILOCCO TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF DRUMMOND AT 812 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THIS LINE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF DIMES.  VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO A FEW MILES AT
TIMES.

SIX

OKZ008-012-013-018>020-241345-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD...KAY...
KINGFISHER...LOGAN...NOBLE AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HARDY TO LOYAL AT 836 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  THIS LINE
OF STORMS PRODUCED ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 MPH NEAR BILLINGS.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS OF PAYNE...LOGAN...AND KINGFISHER SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SIX

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
911 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 AM    7 SSE RED ROCK            OK   72 MPH WIND GUST
05/24/03   NOBLE                          REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET