Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

COLD FRONT ALOFT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR THAN
AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL FRONT WITH MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL DRYLINE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE CUTOFF LOW OVER COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CIRCULATION MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHRA OR TSRA OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

OUTSIDE OF LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AND LIKELY REMAINING THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY THAT PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THIS PATTERN...GREATER AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA WITH
THE DRYLINE AND/OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING TO NEAR OR
POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN OR NW PARTS OF THE AREA PROVIDING A POSSIBLE
SOURCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

OKC   54  74  49  65 /  80  10  10   0
HBR   50  77  47  68 /  70  10  10   0
SPS   54  83  50  70 /  80  10  10   0
GAG   46  70  44  67 /  20  10  10   0
PNC   55  69  47  61 /  80  30  20   0
DUA   62  83  52  67 /  80  30  10   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
JAMES

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ERICK...TO HOBART...TO DUNCAN...TO RINGLING AND
INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SURROUNDING THIS MODERATE RISK
AREA...AND COVERING THE REST OF THE NORMAN NWS COUNTY WARNING
AREA...IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN...PRIMARILY OVER
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH INSTABILITIES STEADILY INCREASING...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...AND APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE MOST
FAVORED AREA IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND A DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FIRE DANGERS MAY ALSO
BE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
806 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0805 PM    WICHITA FALLS             TX   .88 INCH HAIL
04/23/03   WICHITA                        REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO
                                          SPOTTER.

TY/KT

OKZ030-240130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
808 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WANETTE AT 808
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER-SIZE HAIL.

PEOPLE IN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND WATCH FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
THIS STORM APPROACHES.

WR

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0811 PM    WICHITA FALLS             TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/23/03   WICHITA                        REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO
                                          SPOTTER.

0814 PM    2 W HOLLIDAY              TX   .88 INCH HAIL
04/23/03   ARCHER                         REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO
                                          SPOTTER.

TY

OKZ031-042-240130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR PONTOTOC AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF KONAWA AT 820 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN PONTOTOC AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND WATCH FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.

WR

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0815 PM    6 W BYARS                 OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/23/03   MCCLAIN                        PUBLIC REPORT

0820 PM    2 E HASTINGS              OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/23/03   JEFFERSON                      PUBLIC REPORT

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0828 PM    WANETTE                   OK   .88 INCH HAIL
04/23/03   POTTAWATOMIE                   REPORTED BY NWS COOP
                                          OBSERVER.

TY