Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2003

BUSY DAY ALREADY IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATING ACTIVE AFTERNOON AS DRY
LINE WHICH HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTREAL TX PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE TO NEAR THE OK/TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TX
WILL CONT TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO N TX AND SW OK THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THIS AREA TO SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA VERY CLOSELY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

30

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345 AM CDT WED APR 23 2003

DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH TX
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS MORNING UNDER STRONG
LLJ.  ETA SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z OR SO.  WILL STILL GO WITH HIGH POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS FOR THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER POPS
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING ON.  NOT
REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
RATHER TRICKY WITH ETA SHOWING WET BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF AREA.  HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
A COMPROMISE WITH MAV/FWC EASTERN 2/3RDS AND MORE WITH MET
DATA NEAR DRYLINE.

EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
WILL PROBABLY HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEVERE FARTHER EAST
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG.

UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS/MO
BY EARLY FRIDAY.  EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO BE
FAIRLY STRONG FROM EARLY MORNING ON ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF AREA WHILE CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN MIXING FARTHER NORTH.

WILL GO CLOSER TO MET/FWC NUMBERS SOUTH AND MAV NUMBERS NORTH
ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE THUNDER UNDER
UPPER LOW.  FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS REST OF FA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

NO PLANS TO UPDATE EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

FCSTID = SIX

OKC  67 56 76 49 /  80 60 10 10
HBR  71 53 80 47 /  80 30 10 00
SPS  72 55 83 50 /  70 40 10 00
GAG  73 50 71 44 /  80 20 10 00
PNC  64 55 69 47 /  80 60 30 10
DUA  67 60 79 52 /  80 60 10 10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ERICK...TO HOBART...TO DUNCAN...TO RINGLING AND
INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SURROUNDING THIS MODERATE RISK
AREA...AND COVERING THE REST OF THE NORMAN NWS COUNTY WARNING
AREA...IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN...PRIMARILY OVER
THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH INSTABILITIES STEADILY INCREASING...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...AND APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE MOST
FAVORED AREA IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND A DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FIRE DANGERS MAY ALSO
BE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.