Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
340 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A WOODWARD... TO OKC... TO
ARDMORE LINE BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MORNING CONVECTION HAD MOVED NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PRIMARY
AREAS OF SEVERE TSTMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES... AND ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TORNADO
WATCHES #131 AND 132 CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS A LARGE
PART OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT... THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COOLER AND DRYER AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AND SPREAD EAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OKC   48   67   45   72  / 30    0    0    0
HBR   46   68   43   73  / 20    0    0    0
SPS   49   73   47   75  / 10    0    0    0
GAG   42   67   38   72  / 40    0    0   10
PNC   46   65   43   69  / 60    5    0    0
DUA   53   72   48   73  / 50    0    0    0

FORECAST ID = 32

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO
EL RENO TO ARDMORE.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MODERATE RISK AREA AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM REYDON TO LAWTON
OKLAHOMA TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TODAY.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH MID
OR LATE AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
END ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.  IN ADDITION... THERE ARE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TODAY.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.  INITIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... AND THEN DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN... CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THESE AREAS AND
LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE IS SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS... BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY APR 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
EXTREME TO HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  PLEASE
REFER TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

.26.

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    RENFROW                   OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   GRANT                          REPORTED BY NWS
                                          COOP OBSERVER

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    2 W BRAMAN                OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   KAY                            REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTER.

0607 PM    5 SE BRAMAN               OK   .88 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   KAY                            REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0611 PM    BRAMAN                    OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   KAY                            REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTER.

0614 PM    BRAMAN                    OK   0.88 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   KAY                            REPORTED BY NWS COOP
                                          OBSERVER.

TY/KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0635 PM    1 NW NEWKIRK              OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   KAY                            REPORTED BY NWS COOP
                                          OBSERVER.

KT/TY

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 AM    RENFROW                   OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   GRANT                          REPORTED BY NWS
                                          COOP OBSERVER

KT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0650 PM    12 NE NEWKIRK             OK   .88 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   KAY                            PUBLIC REPORT

TY