Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

HAVE UPPED OVERNIGHT POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN A CORRIDOR THRU CENTRAL
OK. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER W AND CENTRAL TX EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING/INCREASING/SPREADING NE AS LLJ ENHANCES LL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT BENEATH AND AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
AND POTENT UPPER JET. EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO 1 OR MORE MCS
CLUSTERS AND ROLL NE ACROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT.

PRELIM ASSESSMENT OF SAT SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER CONSULTING W/SPC IS
MDT RISK FOR MUCH OF OK E OF RUFLY END-OKC-ADM. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES EXPECTED TO BE OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...EXACT LOCATION
UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ON OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND
SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE FEATURES. PART OF MDT AREA COULD BE UPGRADED IN
A LATER UPDATE.

FCSTID =   24
OKC   62  76  50  68 /  80  70  60   0
HBR   57  77  49  70 /  70  50  20   0
SPS   61  81  52  73 /  60  50  20   0
GAG   52  64  43  66 /  40  70  80   0
PNC   61  69  48  65 /  60  80  80   0
DUA   63  81  55  72 /  50  70  70   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO CHEYENNE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
80S.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL.   HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE AN EXTREME TO HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  PLEASE REFER
TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA BY
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HEATING AS
SKIES CLEAR.  LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

MAXWELL/SPEG

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0302 AM    QUANNAH                   TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   HARDEMAN                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC

JF

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR COUNTY NAME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0234 AM    SNYDER                    OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   KIOWA                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTER

JF/TY

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0310 AM    3 E QUANNAH               TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   HARDEMAN                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0220 AM    TIPTON                    OK   2.75 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   TILLMAN                        REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTER

0235 AM    FREDERICK                 OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   TILLMAN                        REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0230 AM    1 N FREDERICK             OK   4.50 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   TILLMAN                        REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

JF

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0328 AM    10 W ELMER                OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/19/03   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTER.

TY