Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Norman, OK

000 
WGUS74 KOUN 142118
FFSOKC
OKC149-142215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WASHITA COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE...

RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER WASHITA COUNTY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. 
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND 
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AREAS OF HIGH WATER...ESPECIALLY 
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF WASHITA COUNTY...MAY CONTINUE 
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. 
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3544 9869 3513 9867 3515 9931 3545 9931

$$

11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
1054 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO EAST CENTRAL
OK. AN UPR LVL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE UPR LOW AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ARE PROVIDING LIFT OF THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FA. WITH VIRTUALLY NO CAP OVER THE AREA...HEATING OF THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH LITTLE
TO NO WIND SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
TODAY. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE AREA FOR
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKY COVER. WILL
SEND UPDATE SHORTLY.

MAXWELL

356 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DSPTD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH ONE CLUSTER LINGERING IN THE NW. SAT AND RADAR LOOPS
SHOW MID LVL CIRC CENTER IN TX PANHANDLE WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING
SEWD. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SLOWLY SEWD
INTO N TX DURING THE DAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND...NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND PREV MENTIONED MID LVL CIRC WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHERST POPS IN SW PART OF THE FA. WEAKER WIND FIELDS AND LESS
INSTAB WILL LIMIT THREAT OF SEVERE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SLOW
MOVING UPR TROF WILL LINGER IN THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK SO WILL LIKELY SEE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE SE CLOSET TO THE UPR TROF. NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED WITH PRECIP CHCS DECREASING AND TMPS WARMING MID TO LATE
WEEK.

OKC   83   64   84   64  / 30   30   20   20
HBR   84   63   85   65  / 50   30   20   10
SPS   84   66   86   67  / 50   40   30   20
GAG   81   59   84   59  / 50   20   10   10
PNC   84   63   86   64  / 20   20   10   10
DUA   85   67   83   67  / 50   40   40   30

FORECAST ID = 02

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM NEAR ELK
CITY...TO NORMAN...TO MCALESTER. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LIFT OF THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT IS OVER THE AREA TO CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO HELP DESTABILIZE THE VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY... VERY LIGHT WINDS AT
ALL LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE NORMAN FORECAST AREA.  THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

MAXWELL