Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1030 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

.SHORT RANGE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS PA AND SOUTHERN NY...AS WELL AS A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PA. WEST WINDS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR ACROSS A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A DEEP WEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...BECAUSE I CANT IGNORE THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...I WILL MAINTAIN A 30 PCT POP ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PCT ALONG THE
COAST...INCLUDING NYC...LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. THE BEST
HEATING...LEADING TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
OUR LOCAL CWA...WHERE THE SPC DISPLACED THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

I WILL TWEAK THE GRID WEATHER FIELDS TO MORE ACCURATELY DEPICT
CURRENT AND FORECAST CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VSBY FOR HAZE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY...PERHAPS UP TO 6 SM AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS DUE TO A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WITH
SOME HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT...ESP N AND W WITH SCT
CONVECTION POTENTIAL. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES NW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

...THIS IS THE 320 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.EXTENDED...FAIR AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

HYDRO.....ANY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN BASIN AVERAGES BELOW FLOOD
GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
....................................................................

OKX TEAM
PUBLIC/GRIDS...GC
AVIATION/MARINE...DW
OBSERVATIONS...NV

.OKX CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

GC

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-010930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
400 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NJZ002-NYZ067-069-070-301800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER HEWITT...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

BASED ON THIS MOVEMENT...THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF...

RINGWOOD...GREENWOOD LAKE...STONETOWN...WANAQUE AROUND 100 PM...
SLOATSBURG AROUND 110 PM...

PEOPLE IN WESTERN PASSAIC AND EXTREME WESTERN BERGEN COUNTIES IN NEW
JERSEY...AND ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK
ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER AS HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE INCH AN
HOUR...HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS
AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

GC